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Wintry Feb. 19-20

superjames1992 said:
I think they are waiting until after the 12z runs to decide between advisories and warnings.

EDIT: Never mind, just got the WWA, so I guess they didn’t wait. Roxboro to my north is under a WSW of course. 💀 Seems to be some disagreement between RAH and Blacksburg on warnings vs advisories for their CWA. @BIG FROSTY is closer to a warning than RDU!
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I have a feeling there's some disagreement between the midnight shift and the morning shift at RAH who seemed to be trigger happy. Overnight discussion from Badgett suggested holding off another model cycle, morning shift obviously big fans of the NAM.
 
Had quite a few storms IMBY that ended up being big dogs that were just WWAs at the onset (March 2014, I’m pretty sure December 2010 in the Triad off the top of my head), and crappy storms that were WSWs at the onset, so not too worried about the distinction.

Technically, they say a Watch -> Advisory is an upgrade, not a downgrade, though I know it doesn’t feel that way.
 
superjames1992 said:
I think the 09z SREF plumes might be the wettest yet for RDU. Would not at all be surprised to see the 12z NAM increase QPF (and perhaps warmth).
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Interesting that they give literally everone a 100% chance of at least .1 of precip,(except Northern MS). But they've cut way back on the .5 inch probs. Coming much closer to reality I think, but still on the wet side of guidance. Good to see.

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NWS seems to think greensboro to concord to southern meck may be the "jackpot" zone for areas in the western piedmont. Kinda like fros snow map
 
1300m said:
I have a feeling there's some disagreement between the midnight shift and the morning shift at RAH who seemed to be trigger happy. Overnight discussion from Badgett suggested holding off another model cycle, morning shift obviously big fans of the NAM.
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The morning crew is cool, freshman year at state I got to shadow Jonathan blaes for a couple hours
 
rburrel2 said:
WWA advisory for Raleigh? lol. What a joke. I'd give them a 100% chance of warning criteria winter precip.
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I’d say it’s pretty fair for now given the potential for warm nose/sleet issues in the Triangle. I’d be more encouraged if this didn’t look so marginal aloft temp wise already even on the coarser global models like the EPS (which almost always underestimate the warm nose). That being said, a few inches of sleet is honestly just as is if not more impactful than 4”+ of snow.
 
1300m said:
I have a feeling there's some disagreement between the midnight shift and the morning shift at RAH who seemed to be trigger happy. Overnight discussion from Badgett suggested holding off another model cycle, morning shift obviously big fans of the NAM.
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JMO im not a met... but especially a situation as fluid as this, its just easier imo to go WWA and extremely Low amounts then go up tomm AM once we see a radar within 100 miles of the CWA jmo. If you go WSW ppl will absolutely expect 3+ of frozen precip, No reason to do a Saturday EURO and throw that out. If youre not 100% sure just go low and WWA, hell the only ppl that will know youre even going low will be ppl in forums or weenies anyway. What general public doesnt know wont hurt them
 
Ross said:
word to the wise if the gulf convection sets up like that then this is one of those rare times it needs to be watched for moisture transport issues (gulf stealing our moisture, in the parlance)
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Does this only have an affect when the LP is in the Gulf (Western areas) or would it also affect the system's future development as it is starting to crank off the SE coast (Eastern areas) or both in general?
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
JMO im not a met... but especially a situation as fluid as this, its just easier imo to go WWA and extremely Low amounts then go up tomm AM once we see a radar within 100 miles of the CWA jmo. If you go WSW ppl will absolutely expect 3+ of frozen precip, No reason to do a Saturday EURO and throw that out. If youre not 100% sure just go low and WWA, hell the only ppl that will know youre even going low will be ppl in forums or weenies anyway. What general public doesnt know wont hurt them
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In other words, keep your expectations rather low and be pleasantly surprised IF it's a boom scenario

Sent from my A600DL using Tapatalk
 
rburrel2 said:
I'm at least equally excited about the backside stuff Thursday morning. There will be winners and mostly losers, but some lucky people could get 2-4 inches from that action I think.

I'm especially excited because there's one heck of surface trough developing over the savannah river. I've seen this exact situation play out before, I can't remember what storm. But there was a tongue of warm surface air where the CAA winds coming around each side of the mountains meet up with each other along the savannah river after a storm and a stationary band did develop that morning along that feature and it gave Elberton, GA down to Greensboro, GA as much as 4 inches of snow.

I actually think it may have been the christmas 2010 storm.

You can see in these images I posted. The RGEM is developing that band right on top of those warmest surface temps.. makes sense you'd get added lift there with both the converging surface winds and resulting tongue of warm air.

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February 16 2013. The best I’ve seen. Almost totally unexpected. With warm surface temps it still threw down several inches here. I remember it was showing 40 on my car thermometer and puking snow. We got 2-3 inches quickly IMG_1644.pngIMG_1643.jpeg
 
I think someone is about to get NAM’d. Not surprised after the SREF it would wetten up. Might torch us, too. Looking juicier as it moves in.
 
No changes from me. I will say, sleet/zr near Wake County will be the jackpot zone for preserving snowfall longer than most locations and far greater travel issues due to sleet approaching 1” or more. If someone made a travel map I would have the worst areas from Concord to Raleigh. Lesser impacts closer to i77 with dry snow that can be evaporated by the sun.
 
Looks like GSP has heavily weighted the SREF this morning. Unless it pulls a coup, I don't see how CLT gets over an inch. They increased amounts this morning, which I don't currently understand.

In fact, I can't remember a time where I was forecasted to get x amount of snow and actually got it. It's always under. But I digress.

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@Ross @1300m If the Orientation were to go SW -NE with GCC Wouldnt that invite more flow into the storm? Ik about the oblonged robbing it but I feel like ive read somewhere the opposite could benefit
 
Seems a little quicker to move in, as well. Not sure if that helps or hurts us.
 
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