SPC AC 121627
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTH GA/NORTH FL...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible,
primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida.
...Southeast through tonight...
A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject
east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an
associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a
trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly
unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle
and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band
of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support
some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through
this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread
and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There
might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop
immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast
TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse
rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe
threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight.
..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/12/2024
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTH GA/NORTH FL...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible,
primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida.
...Southeast through tonight...
A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject
east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an
associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a
trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly
unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle
and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band
of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support
some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through
this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread
and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There
might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop
immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast
TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse
rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe
threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight.
..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/12/2024