I’ll take 70s and sun over 32.9 mud rain for Christmas weekend. Very rare to get a white Christmas so might as well be good weather for travel. Might even do a outside cookout this year ?
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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I don’t see anything great about the GEFS
Hint: don’t focus on your backyard and on the exact output because it isn’t that it is BN, but rather on how different the pattern is vs earlier runs and the overall cooler temperatures in much of the country after day 10 vs earlier runs with a weaker SER that doesn’t hold well. Maybe I should have posted this in the January thread.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The pattern isn’t any different though from what we have in late Dec. The GOA ridge is literally in the exact same spot from start to finish. Perhaps if we get lucky, the Siberian vortex will undergo a cyclonic wave break and force it into the Bering Sea.
Webb, did you mean to post the 0Z CMC ensemble instead of the 6Z GEFS? And yes, I realize the GOA ridge is still there. So, not a major pattern change. But the SER isn’t as strong and that kills the torch and gives closer to normal temperatures. Plus there’s decent cross polar flow and what looks like more of a -EPO perhaps.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The se ridge and temp anomalies aren’t as strong because of the artifact of increased spread and damping with range in the ensemble means.
There could be more -EPO if we see the Siberian Vortex undergo a cyclonic wave break (tilting negative in the process and forcing height rises downstream over Alaska and the Bering Sea), but those are hard to forecast more than a week or so out
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It honestly doesn’t matter what model I show, they all depict the GOA ridge in about the same spot as it is now. The one slightly encouraging sign on both ensembles is it does look like the E Asia vortex is in a slightly more favorable spot to create -EPO and this could be undersold on the models but my confidence in this is pretty low atm
cyclogent
Member
Well, thus far Chattanooga has seen 4 freezes for the month of December with 1 more progged tonight, but that's probably it for the month... last time we only had 5 freezes in December was way back in 1936.
Also, coldest temp season-to-date for Chattanooga is 27. As it stands, that's tied for 3rd warmest minimum for a fall/winter season heading into New Years.
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Also, coldest temp season-to-date for Chattanooga is 27. As it stands, that's tied for 3rd warmest minimum for a fall/winter season heading into New Years.
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NoSnowATL
Member
Winter snow moon. It’s a good sign.
Downeastnc
Member
Wonder if they are having trouble with the sensor at PGV temp went from 36 to 45 in 30 mins in the last hr, wind went from calm to NW at 3 but would that warm it up 10 degrees? DP went from 36 to 25 in the same time frame....
22:35 | NW 3 | 10.00 | Fair | CLR | 43 | 25 | 49% | NA | NA | 30.03 | NA | ||||||
| 22 | 22:15 | NW 3 | 10.00 | Fair | CLR | 45 | 27 | 49% | NA | NA | 30.02 | NA | |||||
| 22 | 21:55 | Calm | 10.00 | Fair | CLR | 45 | 27 | 49% | NA | NA | 30.01 | NA | |||||
| 22 | 21:35 | NW 3 | 10.00 | Fair | CLR | 43 | 28 | 57% | NA | NA | 30.00 | NA | |||||
| 22 | 21:15 | Calm | 10.00 | Fair | CLR | 36 | 34 | 93% | NA | NA | 30.00 | NA | |||||
| 22 | 20:55 | Calm | 10.00 | Fair | CLR | 36 | 36 | 100% | NA | NA | 29.99 | NA |
25.7 so far this morning making it the coldest morning this month
Got down to 22.6 at 3:25 am. Chilly.
28 currently. Not sure how cold we got. This will be the last temperature we see below 50 degrees for at least the next 9 days. Let that sink in.
bigstick10
Member
24.7 at my house,,,Yeah pathetic on that thought, might be longer than that even.
24.6 was my low. Jimmy, I think your lows will dip below 50 the next couple of night but I get your point that it's going to be warm the next week.
I think the wedge Sunday into Monday might be the shortest wedge time wise I've ever seen
Dang only 25.7 here, really gotta move the Weatherflow ?