After 50 years you finally learned ! Amazing . Did you manage to copy and paste hopefully ? Nice !
My only hope is that the pattern flips sometime in early Jan as many are expecting and we are given a 2-3 week window. La Ninas and February usually means warmth for the SE,especially for the Carolinas due to the SE ridge that comes with most La Ninas.
If the -NAO is indeed west based and has any staying power I would imagine we'd see some favorable H5 looks. Even last year had some great H5 looks and good storm tracks. The -NAO got a bad rap last year by some. Mostly the youngsters who were like 10 years old the last time we had one in 09-10 and first part of 10-11. Those two winters were good. Looking back at some of the great winters of the 60s and 70s in the east they had a -NAO. The lack of cold ruined it last year. And we still had some very close calls. I'm sure someone can dig up a winter somewhere that had a west based -NAO that never got a favorable H5 pattern, but it has to be rare. So this year if it has any staying power with the cold available I feel decent about a window with a good pattern. It very well may not snow due to bad timing and lack of moisture but we'll see.
Yeah. I'm sure we will. At least I'm hopeful of that (being a cold weather lover). There have been some good la nina winter events (...1996). I just think our chances will be less with this ongoing la nina.
I wouldn't think it would take long. It's hard to get ridging in the EPO and NAO regions at the same time to start with. Much less sustain it. These weird looks the models are spitting out is during this time frame we have both. My opinion we'll lose one come January. If it's the NAO we may have problems but it's anyone's guess at this point.
Like said earlier don’t see why people are shocked of this pattern with the La Niña way it’s setting up and been. The number one analog was 11 12 winter going in this winter , seems be following suit .
It's definitely not 11-12 in my opinion. We were way colder in November this year that 2011. We probably will be warmer this December than December 2011 which sucks. But that winter was dominated by deep AK vortex and not even a sign of a -NAO. In the end we may indeed end up warmer that that year with not even a sleet pellet. But if we do we're going to do it in a different way.
Probably the -NAO we’re gonna couple it to the strat per models, I have a good feeling about Jan
A snowy pattern for I-40 and North maybe. I don't see anything to be optimistic about for the I-10 and I-20 crew.
