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Pattern December to Remember

I will continue to say that I don’t believe a pattern change to occur until 27th-3rd this is where I think rumblings happen and head towards that pattern change we want for snow … anything before that “should be” torch baring a lucky break with CAD but you shouldn’t prepare for anything fun until early January
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I will continue to say that I don’t believe a pattern change to occur until 27th-3rd this is where I think rumblings happen and head towards that pattern change we want for snow … anything before that “should be” torch baring a lucky break with CAD but you shouldn’t prepare for anything fun until early January
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Than you worry about the January thaw …
 
tennessee storm said:
Than you worry about the January thaw …
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The very last few days of December and first week of January is when most folks have been saying the flip to cold could occur. Between now and then warm to normal is expected. I am not worried about a January thaw for at least 2 weeks if the -NAO gets established and the Pacific just improves some it may take awhile to dislodge the cold if it gets established. Nothing in weather is ever for sure but winter in the mid south and the southeast, but may as well look at the positives possibilities when they are there. Most of us can handle the disappointment, there is reason to be optimistic especially for my area I believe. Slightly negative to slightly positive PNA can work for most of Tennessee many times except maybe East Tn.
 
snowvol said:
The very last few days of December and first week of January is when most folks have been saying the flip to cold could occur. Between now and then warm to normal is expected. I am not worried about a January thaw for at least 2 weeks if the -NAO gets established and the Pacific just improves some it may take awhile to dislodge the cold if it gets established. Nothing in weather is ever for sure but winter in the mid south and the southeast, but may as well look at the positives possibilities when they are there. Most of us can handle the disappointment, there is reason to be optimistic especially for my area I believe. Slightly negative to slightly positive PNA can work for most of Tennessee many times except maybe East Tn.
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Being little sarcastic. Because it’s got freeze first even to consider a thaw lol
 
For all the doomsayers out there, here is the Australian prediction of the MJO.
mjo_rmm_daily_20211215(1).png
 
iGRXY said:
The lack of a -NAO or at least a decent -NAO is why the EPS is torching us. Lack of confluence for the 50/50 low as well. Hopefully this is just the Euro and the EPS bias of reducing the strength of the blocking in the long range as it has done before.
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This is the NAO forecast from the ECMWF Ensembles
1639742400-EdX4XDsshbcgrb2.png
 
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