Pattern December to Remember

[FallsLake]

I was hopeful that we could muddy up the pattern enough that we landed cool to cold in Christmas day even with the overall background of warm but that's looking less likely unless we catch a break. Certainly like where the 2nd half of the 12z gefs and 0z eps went

Still might. The Canadian keeps a low off our coast up to Christmas. This keeps us from getting too warm. The Euro had the low but just weaker. We're at 10 days out so we could still luck out with a cool anomaly setup.

GDPS Christmas Eve morning:

 

[SD]

Lol euro control is going to be a treat after 240

 

[ATLwxfan]

I’m clearly not as smart as most here because all I see on the GFS is a SER continuing to fight off any significant cold intrusions.


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[SD]

Eps looking more like the gefs
Lower heights in the east

More cool/ cold air getting pulled out across the Conus but still a gradient type look

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Week after Christmas seems very transitory. Likely some very pleasant weather before a cooler pattern takes grip

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Eps looking more like the gefsView attachment 97957
Lower heights in the east
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More cool/ cold air getting pulled out across the Conus but still a gradient type look
View attachment 97959

Slow and steady wins the race

 

[SD]

Euro control shows how you can turn this pattern into a freezer.

 

[Rain Cold]

Euro control shows how you can turn this pattern into a freezer.

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If you're going to have the big ridge over the Aleutians, then you better have that big negative anomaly underneath it to pump up heights out west. Otherwise, just meh and mild.

 

[bigstick10]

These models,LMAO,,now, I see 48 for xmas, versus 70 a few hours ago...LOL

 

[GaWx]

12Z EPS significantly better at H5/2 meter temperatures vs last few runs after day 10. These maps look even better than the 0Z EPS late in its run yesterday that were what the colder weeklies were based on.
These maps aren’t BN in the SE but they are cooler than recent runs days 12+ with close to normal late instead of solid AN. And they then lead to a potentially better period when we finally get into phase 8.

 

[SD]

That's a decent step down on the eps later in the run

 

[weatherfide]

So much for the wedge today. Between 68 and 70 degrees outside.

 

[Metwannabe]

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That's a decent step down on the eps later in the run

No winter weather, brief torch and then mild, nothing unheard of around here in December. Could be much worse, definitely not top 3 warmest material

 

[bigstick10]

So much for the wedge today. Between 68 and 70 degrees outside.

As much as I love cold and excitement, it is stunningly beautiful out today. Note: Blairsville, GA one of the coldest reporting stations in GA had a low of 19 this morning, it is now 70, insanity.

 

[SD]

No winter weather, brief torch and then mild, nothing unheard of around here in December. Could be much worse, definitely not top 3 warmest material

Yeah I'm guessing that the mean ticks up around Christmas looking at the plumes most of the members are near/above the mean but we will see there. Overall though if we verified close to the mean no complaints from me

 

[GaWx]

I’d love for either of these MJO paths to verify for the end of the month with my favorite of low amp 8 and then headed toward low amp 1 and 2 as that’s near the path of some memorable SE cold periods, including some with major winter storms, especially when there’s also -NAO/-AO

 

[smast16]

View attachment 97965
View attachment 97966
That's a decent step down on the eps later in the run

So, Christmas could be be 30, or 70... cool

 

[Webberweather53]

I still think the EPS is a little too warm, GEFS looks just about right to me in the extended.

 

[SD]

So, Christmas could be be 30, or 70... cool

Yes ? or ?

 

[GaWx]

I still think the EPS is a little too warm, GEFS looks just about right to me in the extended.

Especially if there’s a wedge then!