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Pattern December to Remember

I was hopeful that we could muddy up the pattern enough that we landed cool to cold in Christmas day even with the overall background of warm but that's looking less likely unless we catch a break. Certainly like where the 2nd half of the 12z gefs and 0z eps went
Still might. The Canadian keeps a low off our coast up to Christmas. This keeps us from getting too warm. The Euro had the low but just weaker. We're at 10 days out so we could still luck out with a cool anomaly setup.

GDPS Christmas Eve morning:
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12Z EPS significantly better at H5/2 meter temperatures vs last few runs after day 10. These maps look even better than the 0Z EPS late in its run yesterday that were what the colder weeklies were based on.
These maps aren’t BN in the SE but they are cooler than recent runs days 12+ with close to normal late instead of solid AN. And they then lead to a potentially better period when we finally get into phase 8.
 
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No winter weather, brief torch and then mild, nothing unheard of around here in December. Could be much worse, definitely not top 3 warmest material
Yeah I'm guessing that the mean ticks up around Christmas looking at the plumes most of the members are near/above the mean but we will see there. Overall though if we verified close to the mean no complaints from me
 
I’d love for either of these MJO paths to verify for the end of the month with my favorite of low amp 8 and then headed toward low amp 1 and 2 as that’s near the path of some memorable SE cold periods, including some with major winter storms, especially when there’s also -NAO/-AO

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I still think the EPS is a little too warm, GEFS looks just about right to me in the extended.
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