Pattern December to Remember

[BullCityWx]

no dice this run on the euro but it didnt go north and at this point, that is all that matters.

 

[Webberweather53]

I love the big r2r movements in the gefs post 240View attachment 97937
View attachment 97938

View attachment 97939

Interesting because the ensemble mean has shifted warmer around Christmas, and as you pointed out yesterday, most of the gefs members that were warm around the holiday looked cooler afterwards. Maybe we’re seeing that cluster of members win out?

 

[SD]

Interesting because the ensemble mean has shifted warmer around Christmas, and as you pointed out yesterday, most of the gefs members that were warm around the holiday looked cooler afterwards. Maybe we’re seeing that cluster of members win out?

This is the first time in a while I've seen more weight on the eastern trough than the west
Obviously very late in the run but nice to see.
With that the mean is cold almost nation wide

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This isn’t a bad look nice west based -NAO with some parts of the TPV trapped under it

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

End of the GEFS looks Money for cold lovers

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Solid but not much cold under these blues, better then the GFS tho

 

[whatalife]

Don’t hate the look. Liked where the GEFS was headed.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[SD]

Solid but not much cold under these blues, better then the GFS tho View attachment 97951

Gotta love how the euro is really extending the nao ridge toward Hudson bay

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This would probably eventually get cold but that strong pac jet is a issue, as it’s been the last few months

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

This is the first time in a while I've seen more weight on the eastern trough than the westView attachment 97948
Obviously very late in the run but nice to see.
With that the mean is cold almost nation wideView attachment 97949

Yeah the -NAO looks like it's becoming stronger than the Aleutian ridge. Good trends. Those are the positive signs I look for.

 

[weatherfide]

Icon has the low in the same location as the Euro but the precipitation field just hugs the coast. Still too warm everywhere but this will probably come north a good bit in the end. We shall have our cold rain!

 

[SD]

Yeah the -NAO looks like it's becoming stronger than the Aleutian ridge. Good trends. Those are the positive signs I look for.

It's an interesting look on the euro with the really favorable nao but the less than favorable pacific. It would probably take time for us to really work in any cool to cold air probably not behind the Christmas eve system, and likely not behind the next but all in all it's far better than 588 dm heights over the region

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

It's an interesting look on the euro with the really favorable nao but the less than favorable pacific. It would probably take time for us to really work in any cool to cold air probably not behind the Christmas eve system, and likely not behind the next but all in all it's far better than 588 dm heights over the region

Sounds like last winter all over again. Solid -NAO but horrible pacific

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

It's an interesting look on the euro with the really favorable nao but the less than favorable pacific. It would probably take time for us to really work in any cool to cold air probably not behind the Christmas eve system, and likely not behind the next but all in all it's far better than 588 dm heights over the region

Yeah I've been thinking maybe the last couple days of the month into the 1st week of January all along. If that's going to happen we should start seeing it show up at the end of modeling consistently over the next few days. I never was big on a before or just after Christmas flip.

 

[SD]

Sounds like last winter all over again. Solid -NAO but horrible pacific

Yeah there would be some similarities but the cold as a whole living more in NW Canada vs Siberia would give us a better chance at hitting the marginal events vs 36 and light rain

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Yeah I've been thinking maybe the last couple days of the month into the 1st week of January all along. If that's going to happen we should start seeing it show up at the end of modeling consistently over the next few days. I never was big on a before or just after Christmas flip.

Weren’t you saying the end of January?

 

[SD]

Yeah I've been thinking maybe the last couple days of the month into the 1st week of January all along. If that's going to happen we should start seeing it show up at the end of modeling consistently over the next few days. I never was big on a before or just after Christmas flip.

I was hopeful that we could muddy up the pattern enough that we landed cool to cold in Christmas day even with the overall background of warm but that's looking less likely unless we catch a break. Certainly like where the 2nd half of the 12z gefs and 0z eps went

 

[Metwannabe]

I was hopeful that we could muddy up the pattern enough that we landed cool to cold in Christmas day even with the overall background of warm but that's looking less likely unless we catch a break. Certainly like where the 2nd half of the 12z gefs and 0z eps went

-NAO becoming more and more prominent on each successive model run, I'll take my chances with that.

 

[SD]

 

[SD]

Lol eps trying to ridge bridge