Pattern December to Remember

[Webberweather53]

View attachment 97649Gefs does look better then the OP in the pacView attachment 97650

From my winter storm climatology page

 

[iGRXY]

GFS H5 just doesn’t look possible. There is way too much blocking over the top in Alaska and especially in the a North Atlantic to get the SER pumping like that. At worse we would possibly go slightly below average.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

From my winter storm climatology page

View attachment 97656

View attachment 97657

 

[Webberweather53]

View attachment 97658View attachment 97659View attachment 97660

MJO phase 7 in December has a reputation for producing CAD events in NC. Would be fitting

 

[Webberweather53]

The GEFS just continues to get better

 

[Webberweather53]

The torch pattern is getting wiped out

 

[Myfrotho704_]

??

 

[GaWx]

For late month, where would this absolutely frigid air in our main source region go if this map is pretty accurate? It isn’t plunging down, but would enough of it later get to the NE and then lead to an even colder wedge than the one expected for 12/19-20?? This is the coldest GEFS run up there for then yet:

 

[GaWx]

12Z GEFS cross polar flow brings frigid cold to our main source region as this is the coldest run up there yet. How far south would this cold air eventually get as it battles the zonal flow below it? Also, check out the N Atlantic blocking as Europe goes into the freezer:

 

[Webberweather53]

Wow

 

[Webberweather53]

12Z GEFS cross polar flow brings frigid cold to our main source region as this is the coldest run up there yet. How far south would this cold air eventually get as it battles the zonal flow below it? Also, check out the N Atlantic blocking:

View attachment 97667

We are really trying to split the polar vortex

 

[StormWatch]

The GEFS just continues to get better

View attachment 97661

View attachment 97663View attachment 97664

I'm liking the trends today! Winter storm bound!

 

[GaWx]

We are really trying to split the polar vortex

Two areas of the world in the freezer on 12Z GEFS:

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The torch pattern is getting wiped out

View attachment 97662

December 2017 esque

 

[GaWx]

Last 12Z GEFS: ?

 

[olhausen]

So far this winter up here in Montana has been meh I wouldn’t be surprised if you guys down in the south have a better winter than me but I will say you guys deserve itView attachment 97624

If by better you mean the southeast will be 30 or more degrees warmer on average then yes we will have a better winter. As far as snow you must be pulling our legs. I’d imagine you’ll have multiple weeks that would take years for most of us to equal in snow accumulation and snow days.

 

[GaWx]

OMG, just saw the 6Z CFS and it is MUCH colder for nearly all of January!! More later. The Midwest to NE is incredibly cold and the SE gets in in fine of this, too.

 

[StormWatch]

12z Euro of the initial beginnings of the predicted time frame. Northern stream dipping down w/ the would-to-be potential winter storm over Mexico/TX boarder. The Euro doesn't show it becoming a winter storm, but it's still beyond 5 days, so what happens on later frames is still unknown.

 

[tennessee storm]

Canada looks to be getting pretty cold but we don’t get out zonal flow it will just slide off east ..

 

[Broken024]

OMG, just saw the 6Z CFS and it is MUCH colder for early to mid January!! More later.

Pics or it didn't happen