Who let the bird out of its cage???
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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Something makes me believe the Gfs dumps too much out west .. it’s been biased in that idea for a few weeks now
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I don’t think it’s been biased with westward dumping it’s been correct with it, I think it’s been biased with faster/very progressive northern stream energy on top of the ridge that’s slows down as we get closer
It’s not ideal and I don’t like the strength of the -PNA at all but with the -NAO block in place and attendant SE Canada vortex you can easily get a Miller B/CAD setup 
That’s the famous reverse ? pattern! It leads to this:
That was my thoughts too. I always remember it being ridge happy in the west then flattening it as we get closer.
The general consensus on here is we'll have a window between the end of December and mid January. I agree with that for CAD areas but that's about it. I don't think areas from Birmingham, Atlanta over to CAE are going to be pleased come mid January. The EPO ridge is in the wrong place and the -PNA will persist. What will save CAD regions maybe is the -NAO and legit cold in the NE. I suppose it's possible to get a CAD strong enough to maybe get areas close to CAE and ATL in on action buy I wouldn't bet on it. Time will tell.
I always had a feeling the week of Christmas was to early imo, the pieces are there on top but we need to have some time to shake up what we got going on down here 
Who would have thought. AK and Greenland roasting, and we’re roasting. Haha 
Something tells me the Gfs is just not seeing something properly down the road at this range .. going to take a few more days to get it settled out.. all that blocking and -NAO with a ridge under it like that? I don’t think so
Yeah clearly GFS missing something but i suppose it’s fantasy land for a reason
Gefs does look better then the OP in the pac
lol. ??
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Actually some members on GEFS showing cad storm 
StormWatch
Member
Correct, the GFS isn't quite there just yet in terms of the winter storm prediction. Taking a look at the 12z GEFS members, several of them show overrunning along the boundary while some of them even show a low developing (on later frames) that tracks east and cold enough air at the surface from CAD to produce ice in the CAD prone areas.
12Z GEFS is even colder in the SE 12/19-20 with a strong wedge for the main CAD areas. It isn’t necessarily suggesting major ZR threat, but it is suggesting a much colder couple of days for those areas to get them into the Christmas spirit and to make those longing for cold happy with possibly some ZR:
Philstorm91
Member
Hopefully setting all of us up for greater things to come winterwise in January. Maybe some of us can still get a "White Epiphany" (January 6).
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Quite a contrast between Orlando and Augusta.
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
What’s up with the gfs and GEFS not agreeing with each other all the time?
That’s what a classic Carolina-N GA wedge often does.
Meanwhile, folks, check out the contrast at H5 between the flat 12Z GFS and the much more impressive/not flat 12Z GEFS:
12Z GFS says cold doesn’t come far south for awhile:
In contrast, 12Z GEFS says the GFS is too flat and thus looks much better with the best look for a GEFS yet for this time:
Exactly. To me if locations outside the mountains are going to get significant winter weather this year, it going to have to happen before the end of January….even if the LaNina is weakening by February it’s going to at several months to see the full effect of it. Climo says the SER should really start pumping in February and we see an early spring…hopefully things come together for most of us to see a good snowfall when the window opens for it