No CFS run has yet shown the SE ever getting sustained solid cold. The coldest I’ve yet seen is about 3 BN for RDU for the period late Dec-mid Jan with as cold as 8 BN over a 7 day period thanks largely to strong wedging tapping into the frigid cold getting to the NE. The warmest have been ~5 AN, like the latest run (0Z). The 0Z overall was one of the warmest up north, too, with near normal overall. It keeps jumping around like it almost always does.
So, the chance for strong cold anomalies is suggested by the many CFS runs to be highest up in the MW to NE in this La Ninaish pattern with the coldest runs having been as cold as 5-6 BN up there over a 3 week period from late Dec til mid Jan and the SE at the very bottom of the cold. That’s what I hope for along with good wedging to tap into that strong cold and allow for the SE to be near to a few degrees BN averaged out for the period late Dec to mid Jan, a much more winterlike pattern and much colder than early to mid Dec. I’d be quite content with that when considering where we are for the first 19 or so days of this month averaged out. That would also support a decent shot at a major icestorm especially in the Carolina CAD areas.
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