• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December to Remember

Will Rossman said:
I don't think the MJO is supposed to go into a favorable cold phase for SE US weather until we get to Phase 7 or 8 anyway. The earliest that's supposed to occur is end of December, which means we shouldn't be surprised if this region isn't that cold for Christmas week.
Click to expand...


Here’s phase 7 & 8 during La Nina’s in December. Not overly cold at all and there is also a 10 day lag here but at least blocking develops and there’s hints on the modeling of blocking and the AO/NAO going negative or at least trending in that direction. We don’t really need to focus on cold, just focus on drivers and teleconnections that lead to cold. But I agree with Allan in that I’m not sure we’ll be locked into cold but to the same point no one knows for sure, but seasonal models haven’t exactly hinted at any long term cold…

IMG_2982.png
IMG_2983.png
 
MJO phase 7-8 are great looks for us overall at this time of the year w/ big -EPO & -NAO. I think we'll see the models trend a little more towards this pattern in the coming week or two, but the -PNA may be there in some capacity regardless. That's not necessarily the end of the world, really just means we're more likely to get overrunning/CAD events and there could be some warm-ups from time to time. Fwiw, when you look at many of the biggest CAD/overrunning, they have higher, even slightly positive PNAs leading up to them that transition negative a day or two prior to the storm showing up.

FGYcIU4WUAUbt4M.jpeg


FGYcJbvXsAgvlPP.jpeg
 
Webberweather53 said:
MJO phase 7-8 are great looks for us overall at this time of the year w/ big -EPO & -NAO. I think we'll see the models trend a little more towards this pattern in the coming week or two, but the -PNA may be there in some capacity regardless. That's not necessarily the end of the world, really just means we're more likely to get overrunning/CAD events and there could be some warm-ups from time to time. Fwiw, when you look at many of the biggest CAD/overrunning, they have higher, even slightly positive PNAs leading up to them that transition negative a day or two prior to the storm showing up.

View attachment 97630


View attachment 97629
Click to expand...

The end to the 6Z GEFS is hiding the fact that the entire period 12/19-23 is the coldest run yet in the SE.
 
Hey guys as promised, you know I’ve been honking Jan.15th or later for our first winter storm E of the mtns for quiet some time. However, I told you I would update this December 12th if it should be sooner or later! I am now going with LATER with a time period of January 25th~ or later. Doesn’t mean winter is over I’m just trying to narrow in on when we may start tracking something of significance (greater than 3” snow or quarter inch ice). My next update will be on Christmas Eve to look at the pattern and models to see if things should be pushed back to February 1st or later. Thanks! ?
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Hey guys as promised, you know I’ve been honking Jan.15th or later for our first winter storm E of the mtns for quiet some time. However, I told you I would update this December 12th if it should be sooner or later! I am now going with LATER with a time period of January 25th~ or later. Doesn’t mean winter is over I’m just trying to narrow in on when we may start tracking something of significance (greater than 3” snow or quarter inch ice). My next update will be on Christmas Eve to look at the pattern and models to see if things should be pushed back to February 1st or later. Thanks! ?
Click to expand...
What’s your reasoning?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top