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Pattern December to Remember

Ollie Williams said:
6 inches of sleet in GSP ?
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Accumulating sleet is so underrated.

Anyways, nice to see fantasy runs again over the last couple days. Looking forward to the MJO change that could get us into a favorable state as we get into the coldest time of the year which is January.
 
Will Rossman said:
18z GFS was so close to a classic board wide pasting, IMO. Just needed that cold phasing to happen earlier, and a more southerly track on the gulf low. I'm still dreaming of a white Christmas, and I don't care if it's only on hour 360 of the 18Z operational GFS run.
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GEFS does not support GFS whatsoever. The 18z GFS was just eye candy
 
SD said:
What Ollie said. I've personally found having folks from outside of the region posting nice and if we grow more within the region or outside it'll be even more fun.
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I mostly posted that to mess with a certain poster (who's a notorious cold weather weenie) that's been picking with me. ;)
 
I would love to get the GFS storm but that's just too far out to even consider at this point. Question I (realistically) have is do we have a cold Christmas, or not. We're still four to five days out before we start to get a clear(er) picture. Right now the latest GFS has this (Xmas morning):

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Loganelliott99 said:
GEFS does not support GFS whatsoever. The 18z GFS was just eye candy
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I’d say almost everyone realizes that and that the odds of something similar on the next run are quite low, especially considering that this is way out on day 15-16 and that GEFS offered little support. Although I still think the best shot will not be til a week or so later, keep in mind @Webberweather53 stats showing a good number of NC winter storms during phase 7 in December.

KSAV high was 82, which is only 1 off the monthly record and the warmest since way back on October 22! It will likely be quite a long time before it gets that warm again, perhaps not for a month or more. Even tomorrow will be much cooler (~mid 60s, which is near normal).
 
Brick Tamland said:
I think the Christmas 2010 storm was first shown 10 days out, then went poof on the models and came back a few days before Christmas.
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Yep, that's why a day 16 storm is nice to see but should be taken lightly (if at all). Heck I look at the CFS out to 30 days, but really anything past 12 days is extremely unreliable. Then getting to your point; we've seen that many times in the past. It seems a storm pops up in the 7-10 day range and then we lose it at day 5. Then slowly (if we get a storm) it starts to trend back favorable.
 
Ya'll keep dreaming of a White Christmas, or even White Flakes, Stick a fork in it, Not happening...

Unless it comes from Peru..
 
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