• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December to Remember

Stephenb888 said:
Is this good or bad?
Click to expand...

Just means things are going about how I expected them to by this point overall. The only real wrinkle in a general sense is the stronger Scandinavian ridge that's being enhanced by La Nina & this slow moving MJO, that will probably translate to stronger -NAO down the road in week 3-4.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
So let me see if I understand this ...... Alaska cold, we torch. Alaska warm, we torch. Got it..... I really don't get that whole "Alaska has to thaw before we get cold" thing. Ridge in Alaska obviously doesn't mean what it used to mean for us.
Click to expand...

We saw this pattern infinitely many times in the 2010s (esp during 2012-13, 2013-14, & 2014-15), so none of this has changed.

-EPOs usually translate to SE ridge in the means & are mild over all, but w/ occasional bouts of brutally cold arctic air that can help deliver wintry weather in the deep south
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
So let me see if I understand this ...... Alaska cold, we torch. Alaska warm, we torch. Got it..... I really don't get that whole "Alaska has to thaw before we get cold" thing. Ridge in Alaska obviously doesn't mean what it used to mean for us.
Click to expand...
That looks like a jacked up Aluetian ridge/EPO ridge that's too far west forcing a -PNA. Definitely not pretty and probably not going anywhere anytime soon. We're going to have to rely on a -NAO and hope it materializes. With the cold shots the EPO does provide the NAO may block this up just enough to give us better odds to time something up.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We saw this pattern infinitely many times in the 2010s (esp during 2012-13, 2013-14, & 2014-15), so none of this has changed.

-EPOs usually translate to SE ridge in the means & are mild over all, but w/ occasional bouts of brutally cold arctic air that can help deliver wintry weather in the deep south
Click to expand...

ScrawnyMadEnglishsetter-size_restricted.gif
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
That looks like a jacked up Aluetian ridge/EPO ridge that's too far west forcing a -PNA. Definitely not pretty and probably not going anywhere anytime soon. We're going to have to rely on a -NAO and hope it materializes. With the cold shots the EPO does provide the NAO may block this up just enough to give us better odds to time something up.
Click to expand...

As @Webberweather53, the MJO models, and the CFS runs have been suggesting, the best opportunity for a CAD based winter storm is about 2 weeks after this period (near 1/7/22), not this period.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is definitely one of the more insightful papers I've come across on the MJO-QBO relationship

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/32/18/jcli-d-19-0010.1.xml?tab_body=pdf
Click to expand...

When you also consider that MJO propagation into the W Hem-Indian Ocean is enhanced during -NAO and when the MJO is initially strong (like it is now)...

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/23/JCLI-D-21-0153.1.xml


I bring these papers up to say that we're stacking the deck towards MJO propagation in the long-run & from a subseasonal point of view, it seems more likely than not the MJO will run through phases 8-1 and perhaps even 2-3, which is generally a good thing for snow lovers in the eastern US.
 
Q
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
That looks like a jacked up Aluetian ridge/EPO ridge that's too far west forcing a -PNA. Definitely not pretty and probably not going anywhere anytime soon. We're going to have to rely on a -NAO and hope it materializes. With the cold shots the EPO does provide the NAO may block this up just enough to give us better odds to time something up.
Click to expand...
our area actually does better winter storm wise with -PNAs. Typically because our best shots at snow here are really cold CADs and overrunning events. That typically coincides with - NAO/-PNA/-EPO. +PNAs drop the hammer with the cold but typically suppress any winter storms and areas around the 95 corridor east end up getting their snows this way.
 
Webberweather53 said:
When you also consider that MJO propagation into the W Hem-Indian Ocean is enhanced during -NAO and when the MJO is initially strong (like it is now)...

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/23/JCLI-D-21-0153.1.xml


I bring these papers up to say that we're stacking the deck towards MJO propagation in the long-run & from a subseasonal point of view, it seems more likely than not the MJO will run through phases 8-1 and perhaps even 2-3, which is generally a good thing for snow lovers in the eastern US.
Click to expand...

The easterly phase of the QBO is descending into the lower stratosphere. Should give the MJO a nice boost/helping hand to propagate through the W Hem (phases 8-1) during January.

Screen Shot 2021-12-11 at 2.17.26 PM.png


Singapore_t.png



qbo_plot_eof.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top