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Pattern December to Remember

It's several days out and people are still reeling from last night, but we'll have to keep an eye out on the system this upcoming Wednesday/Thursday too for more severe weather.

It's a similar setup, just a bit further NW.
 
ATLwxfan said:
Does this propagation have to happen though? Couldn’t it just meander in phase 7 for a good long while?


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It is forecasted to meander in high amp 7 by the consensus for most of the next 2 weeks. But that same consensus then has it move to 8 by late Dec. Looking at history, it meandered a long time in 7 in Febs of 1981, 1987, 1989, and 2021 but made it to 8 (outside or within the COD) by March. So, based on history and models, chances of this never getting to 8 are very low although it could end up low amp 8-1-2, including inside COD. That low amp in itself would be even better for cold chances in the SE per history in late Dec-January.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I don't know if it will meander in phase 7 but it very well could collapse into the circle and not have much effect. Any pattern change is still 2 weeks away and you know how that goes. It may or may not happen.
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If it goes nearer to or even inside the COD but stays on left side (8-1-2), that has actually been shown to have better prospects for SE cold in January than high amp 8-1-2. A complete collapse into the middle or right side of COD is highly unlikely per a combo of 1975-2021 diagrams and model forecasts.
 
GaWx said:
If it goes nearer to or even inside the COD but stays on left side (8-1-2), that has actually been shown to have better prospects for SE cold in January than high amp 8-1-2. A complete collapse into the middle or right side of COD is highly unlikely per a combo of 1975-2021 diagrams and model forecasts.
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Phase 7, 8, & the COD are the 3 best places to be to get a winter storm in the Carolinas during January. Phase 7 is actually also one of the best to have a winter storm in December (most of those Dec phase 7 events are CADs not surprisingly).

capture-jpg.96701
 
Wilmington so far up to 79 with dews around 68. Nice. 75/64 here in Washington . Nice day for a swim in the sound. Sunsets have begun getting later as well! Summers comin. Days like today in winter are awesome .
 
Brick Tamland said:
Unfortunately, this December is going to be remembered for one of the worst tornado outbreaks in recent history.
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Last night was scary. I did not go to bed till almost 4AM once the the tornado threat was gone. Had lots of tornado warned storms moving north east directly towards my town. Luckily the storms started to weaken as they came over me. It was a hell of a light show though for December, and as the thread title says it will be a month to remember but for all the wrong reasons.
 
Webberweather53 said:
CFSv2 finally starting to catch onto the -NAO that develops and retrogrades into Greenland by the end of Dec, persisting into early-mid January when I (still) think our best shot to catch a winter storm will be.

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Lol! I was just looking at this. I swear my brain is attached to yours sometimes…first week of January looks ripe for our first snow if this is true. Of course, plenty of hopium but that’s a good run.
 
Webberweather53 said:
CFSv2 finally starting to catch onto the -NAO that develops and retrogrades into Greenland by the end of Dec, persisting into early-mid January when I (still) think our best shot to catch a winter storm will be.

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These 6Z CFS maps have major Carolina/N GA icestorm written all over them:

A6A83292-37DF-44FF-B00B-96E165CDF92C.pngBCB646AD-B03B-4DE2-ADA8-C86F52F8BCCE.png
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The 6Z CFS maintained the intense cold from Chicago to NYC to dominate most of the 3 weeks from late Dec til mid Jan. SE remains at the bottom with cold alternating with mild. Coldest SE Jan 3-10.
 

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GaWx said:
These 6Z CFS maps have major Carolina/N GA icestorm written all over them:

View attachment 97538View attachment 97539

The 6Z CFS maintained the intense cold from Chicago to NYC to dominate most of the 3 weeks from late Dec til mid Jan. She remains at the bottom with cold alternating with mild. Coldest SE Jan 3-10.
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CFSv2 evolution (finally) looks about right to me

The hammer usually comes down about 10-20 days (pentad lag = +2-3, bottom left to top-middle right panels) after we're beyond MJO phase 7. Lag = 0 puts us around roughly Christmas (when most NWP forecasts us to enter phase 8), add 15 days to that and you're basically around Jan 10th.

whmjo7.ndj.t850composite.web.png

cfs-daily-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_7day-1859200.png
 
GaWx said:
It is forecasted to meander in high amp 7 by the consensus for most of the next 2 weeks. But that same consensus then has it move to 8 by late Dec. Looking at history, it meandered a long time in 7 in Febs of 1981, 1987, 1989, and 2021 but made it to 8 (outside or within the COD) by March. So, based on history and models, chances of this never getting to 8 are very low although it could end up low amp 8-1-2, including inside COD. That low amp in itself would be even better for cold chances in the SE per history in late Dec-January.
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Larry you’re a freaking treasure.


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BirdManDoomW said:
^ I agree with that for now @Webberweather53 still January 15th or later IMO. By this Sunday night tho, I’m re-examining my outlook to see if will be pushed back to January 25th and later. I’m certainly not moving ahead only back based on what I see.
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Good lord. If you push it back too much beyond Jan 25 we will be pushing March.
 
GaWx said:
If it goes nearer to or even inside the COD but stays on left side (8-1-2), that has actually been shown to have better prospects for SE cold in January than high amp 8-1-2. A complete collapse into the middle or right side of COD is highly unlikely per a combo of 1975-2021 diagrams and model forecasts.
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Good work sir! Good to see that if it enters the COD that it'll still have the same effect if not better. I'm glad to see it coming right at the perfect time. Based on the chart above I hope it does meander awhile in 7 and head to 8 slowly in Jan because 1 and 2 are not good. I wouldn't have thought that. What's more surprising is the warm phases of 4-6 doesn't mean much come Feb.
 
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