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Pattern December to Remember

Latest CFS (0Z) is back to cold and has Chi-NYC a whopping 5-6 BN 12/27-1/21 with coldest of 8 BN 1/1-1/17 with cross polar flow/-EPO feeding it 12/27-1/11. There’s a -NAO 12/27-1/11 before going +. -AO 12/21-31 before going neutral and then +. SE is at bottom of cold (La Ninaish) with 2 BN 12/27-1/21, like night and day vs now. Lots of wedging suggested with a major icestorm at higher than normal risk 1/1-11 especially CAD areas with average of neutral PNA.

Early to mid Jan MJO 8-1-2, cold phases much of country and especially N Plains to MW to New England in La Niña.

Take all with a grain since it is very jumpy from run to run. Next run probably not as cold.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
12z gfs bringing us back to reality View attachment 97522
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This is a 264 hour op GFS map for 12/22, which isn’t even warm in NC and which is during high amp MJO 7, a not cold phase on average (near normal) in the SE in late Dec. The best shot at cold domination, especially up north, has been and continues to be after 12/26 when MJO gets to the often cold phases of 8-1-2 into mid Jan along with cross polar/-EPO 12/27-1/11.
 
GaWx said:
This is a 264 hour op GFS map for 12/22, which isn’t even warm in NC and which is during high amp MJO 7, a not cold phase on average (near normal) in the SE in late Dec. The best shot at cold domination, especially up north, has been and continues to be after 12/26 when MJO gets to the often cold phases of 8-1-2 into mid Jan along with cross polar/-EPO 12/27-1/11.
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Yeah I understand that. I just meant that this gfs solution makes more sense over the last couple runs that showed arctic outbreaks
 
GaWx said:
This is a 264 hour op GFS map for 12/22, which isn’t even warm in NC and which is during high amp MJO 7, a not cold phase on average (near normal) in the SE in late Dec. The best shot at cold domination, especially up north, has been and continues to be after 12/26 when MJO gets to the often cold phases of 8-1-2 into mid Jan along with cross polar/-EPO 12/27-1/11.
Click to expand...

Does this propagation have to happen though? Couldn’t it just meander in phase 7 for a good long while?


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GaWx said:
This is a 264 hour op GFS map for 12/22, which isn’t even warm in NC and which is during high amp MJO 7, a not cold phase on average (near normal) in the SE in late Dec. The best shot at cold domination, especially up north, has been and continues to be after 12/26 when MJO gets to the often cold phases of 8-1-2 into mid Jan along with cross polar/-EPO 12/27-1/11.
Click to expand...
Larry, I tried to tell people that MJO phase 7 is pretty normal weather for the SE outside of NC/Va which are a little cooler than average. What we want in the SE is phases 8,1 and 2 to get exciting times here in the SE
 
ATLwxfan said:
Does this propagation have to happen though? Couldn’t it just meander in phase 7 for a good long while?


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Click to expand...
I don't know if it will meander in phase 7 but it very well could collapse into the circle and not have much effect. Any pattern change is still 2 weeks away and you know how that goes. It may or may not happen.
 
Even though the cold front came through before the 1am observation this morning (temp dropped to 59*F) and 99% of the day will be spent in the 40s & 50s, the high for today is still going to be 74*F at DFW since that was still the temperature at Midnight.

So yes, another well above average day. :p
 
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