Dewpoint Dan
Member
I have a feeling you will be staying up late tonight.
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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Lol lakes low going to ruin the day
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The downstream atmospheric traffic jam over Europe that kickstarts the -NAO in the extended begins to develop by day 5 on most NWP models
Feels like these 2 patterns could be somewhat relatable, especially if the WPAC typhoon shorten wavelengths 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12z Euro brings me snow next weekend.
Oh...
Is that a cold look for up my way also? I’ve learned we don’t seem to have big variances from highs to lows!? A lot of 30-35 degree highs with 20-25 degree lows. Seems odd to meThe downstream atmospheric traffic jam over Europe that kickstarts the -NAO in the extended begins to develop by day 5 on most NWP models
? 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We got nickeled & dimed to death in mid-late March 2018. With better late Dec climo, I'm sure one or more of these are big dogs.
We Never failed to Miller B in a -EPO in the 2010s, hopefully it can work out
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Ew this is nasty 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
-PNA/-EPO/-NAO are usually much more reliable for cold in the Great Plains than the SE US, no doubt about it
That March 2018 pattern was epicWe got nickeled & dimed to death in mid-late March 2018. With better late Dec climo, I'm sure one or more of these are big dogs.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If the Euro run went out a couple more days, it would have went totally bonkers w/ the -EPO.
SnowNiner
Member
Without the PNA would we truly get legit cold air released into the east? I don't think so. It would seem like mostly the cold air from -NAO comes from SE Canada confluence. I guess I just want the true polar cold up in NW Canada to finally release down, not the cold in NY to come down the wedge. Just can't get excited about SE ridge and hopeful Miller Bs wedges. They really haven't worked for a long time imby. But I guess it's not what we got now at least.
Interesting
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This euro run stemmed from a look at hour 120
>>This euro run stemmed from a look at hour 120
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Curious what the 12z EPS is going to show here in a sec for later in week 2. It has by far been the most bullish of the 3 major NWP suites on the EPO.
What we need to hope for is that cutoff retrograding to the GOA and it pumping a +PNA and it rexing, pumping the -EPO, sort of like this (yes this was May 2020 lol)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah I think so. A lot of that cold air that enters SE Canada also starts to get tapped into from Siberia (via -EPO) as we get past Christmas.
Also worth mentioning that the biggest snow events for the SW piedmont of NC into upstate SC tend to come from cut-off upper lows &/or very deep, cold CAD/overrunning events (Feb 2014, Jan 1988, Feb 1969, Feb 2004, etc.). Miller A cyclones that are more frequent during +PNA, tend to screw over places like Charlotte & Greenville-Spartanburg, SC, leaving most of the snow in the mtns or in the coastal plain-eastern piedmont. If we see enough preceding storms to build legit snow cover upstream over the mid-Atlantic, New England, & SE Canada, gotta like your chances in that part of NC.
Interesting how we got a little trend to a short -EPO next week, although it’s short lived, it’ll certainly send colder air into Canada vs a run of the mill GOA ridge, also the NA trough is digging a bit more and pumping heights out ahead, which increases the chance of a -NAO, and that cutoff under that block is trending stronger which increases the strength of the Rex block via more intense wave breaking 