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Deleted member 1449
Guest
So what should we expect if the MJO never makes it to phase 8? It seems like a distinct possibility that it will circle back to the COD. If so, are we to expect another round of above-normal temps?
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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Seems right. Just about every year we get to watch Oklahoma get winter weather while we alternate between roasting and. CAD.
One thing's for sure, it's getting awfully dry out here with not much chance for relief in sight.
I pray we don't end up gettng all of our rain again in late April - early June. Would like to actually have a sunny/warm Spring...
I pray we don't end up gettng all of our rain again in late April - early June. Would like to actually have a sunny/warm Spring...
Looks like we’re gonna be dealing with the phase 6 MJO thru the 19th. And another reason why I wasn’t buying changed so early, we’re only 3-4 days into phase 7 on the BC euro by the 22/23rd, the response to this take about a week/week and a half, I still have interest in early January but Christmas and even after Christmas is a meh for me 
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
GEFS looked to come in a bit cooler
Either way it’s coming eventually whether it’s for Christmas or just after ??
ATLwxfan
Member
I mean the longer a pattern persists the harder it is to break. We will see a bunch of runs over the next few weeks where real cold will show up 300 hours out- not worth banking on.
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ATLwxfan
Member
Either way it’s coming eventually whether it’s for Christmas or just after
I’d say mid to late January we get a window.
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Why you bringing me into this for? I'm trying to refrain from commenting in this thread ?. That's a terrible look unless you like some weak to moderate CAD. That trough appendage off the NW coast working SW is horrible. It shows up frequently every year now. It's going to be a long time before any sustained cold pattern in the east sets up. The MJO is going to take forever getting into P7/8/1, if it ever does. It's not the only thing that matters though. It's just not that easy. We're soon going to see loops in P6 like usual. Still, we could see some transient cold shots later in January that could provide some opportunities. All we need is a one or two week period of cold. Cold is going to be available up north, so that's good at least. Going back to lurking again. Merry Christmas.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
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Gonna be keeping an eye on the MJO the next few weeks. The bias-corrected ECMWF monthly forecast from yesterday is probably one of the more realistic ones overall, keeping the MJO milling around w/ amplitude between phase 6-7 for basically the rest of December, which signals warmth overall in the SE US and cold intruding into the N Rockies + upper Midwest (canonical NINA pattern)
The reason I say this is when you breakdown the daily probability (%) of seeing a winter storm in NC (east of the mtns) by MJO phase and month, what really stands out is MJO phase 7 in January w/ nearly a 16% chance of a winter storm per day, higher than any other phase in any month, phase 8 & null are a somewhat close seconds in January. This likely has a lot to do w/ the subtropical jet becoming more active & a -NAO tendency being favored when the MJO moves towards the west-central Pacific (phase 7). If the CFS and EPS + empirical wave propagation for a slow-moving La Nina MJO event (i.e. history) are generally to be believed, we could see this come to fruition in/around early January. I.e. the most favorable window for a winter storm may be in this time period
Chart is shown below: NC Winter Storm Probability by MJO phase & month since 1974.
Most favorable phase overall (red/bold, Jan Phase 7), most favorable phase per month (orange/bold), 2nd & 3rd most favorable (yellow/bold)
View attachment 96701
Data source:
Nov-Mar Daily Teleconnections and NC Winter Storms List (1948-2021)
SnowNiner
Member
At this point, I'm very dubious of a true winter flip pattern change anytime soon. I'm hopeful but I'll believe it when I see it. The -NAO is starting to show up well way out there below. But the pacific is still a mess with a western trough just regurgitating itself endlessly. Right now, best case we rid ourselves of the torch with the -NAO, cool off to normal probably, but winter weather would remain elusive IMO. Last winter in a nutshell. We lose the -NAO and wedging and we go back to above normal temps.
Hopefully IF we get to phase 8 MJO in January, we see real improvement in the pacific that brings winter back.
Hopefully IF we get to phase 8 MJO in January, we see real improvement in the pacific that brings winter back.
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You can see the +SCAND trying to establish itself into a -NAO but it keeps swinging quite a bit on models in the LR, which I’m sure is MJO related and noise related
You can see the +SCAND trying to establish itself into a -NAO but it keeps swinging quite a bit on models in the LR, which I’m sure is MJO related and noise related
Think the good news vs last winter is we didn’t nuke Canada with extremely warm temps this past nov/dec so far and it’s colder up there then it was last year, so any marginal airmass will probably be slightly better then last year, I still overall don’t like the look it’s a miserable cold rain patternAt this point, I'm very dubious of a true winter flip pattern change anytime soon. I'm hopeful but I'll believe it when I see it. The -NAO is starting to show up well way out there below. But the pacific is still a mess with a western trough just regurgitating itself endlessly. Right now, best case we rid ourselves of the torch with the -NAO, cool off to normal probably, but winter weather would remain elusive IMO. Last winter in a nutshell. We lose the -NAO and wedging and we go back to above normal temps.
Hopefully IF we get to phase 8 MJO in January, we see real improvement in the pacific that brings winter back.
I'm interested in the north Atlantic evolution here.
Yeah there are a couple of positive puzzle pieces potentially starting to show on the models as they get out to around D7-10 that may be helpful later on
I hope the -NAO does develop and we're not chasing a phantom like we did for basically a decade until last year. I'm still a huge fan of a -NAO even though last year it got a bad rap. It can't fix a bad Pacific but we had some decent H5 looks last year even with a bad Pacific. There just wasn't any cold air to be had on this side of the globe while we had it. It seemed the -NAO was more of a large Canadian ridge early on last year that torched Canada early on. Of course when Canada finally got cold we lost the -NAO and the SER screwed up what could have been a great February. This year there's plenty of cold up there and some of the looks we had last year might actually have a chance this year. Likely not really cold as I don't see a pattern flip to west coast ridging anytime soon and everything will modify moving east. But possibly just enough to produce something unlike last year. If we get the -NAO and still fail with the coldest air on the planet in Canada I may ditch my love affair with the -NAO. But all this is assuming the block actually develops. But it looks promising as every model has it.At this point, I'm very dubious of a true winter flip pattern change anytime soon. I'm hopeful but I'll believe it when I see it. The -NAO is starting to show up well way out there below. But the pacific is still a mess with a western trough just regurgitating itself endlessly. Right now, best case we rid ourselves of the torch with the -NAO, cool off to normal probably, but winter weather would remain elusive IMO. Last winter in a nutshell. We lose the -NAO and wedging and we go back to above normal temps.
Hopefully IF we get to phase 8 MJO in January, we see real improvement in the pacific that brings winter back.
Logan and Cary95, an Tnstorm, day: we toss
You haven’t gotten a chair worthy snow yet
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
ECMWF BC forecast has been too slow/weak over the past week or so. It doesn't really matter whether we technically reach phase 8 or not, but I doubt we don't get there after Christmas.