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Pattern December to Remember

GaWx said:
Based on an analysis I did of temperature anomalies in January in Atlanta covering a 40 or so year period, the coldest when averaged out (so doesn’t guarantee anything but it is what I prefer to see for the best chance for cold MJOwise) was when the MJO was either just outside or inside the circle in phase 8 covering amplitudes 0.5 to 1.5 (inside circle just means amplitude under 1.0). Actually, for each and every one of the 8 phases during that 40 January period, Atlanta (and the bulk of the SE US by extension) was colder when comparing low amp to high amp as this RMM diagram with my handwritten anomalies clearly shows (no, this wasn’t for 1978….I used that one because I wanted a blank one to write on and this period in 1978 was missing RMM data):

View attachment 97326

What I prefer to see is a slow moving counterclockwise rotation just outside or inside the circle from 6 to 7 to 8 to 1 to 2 to 3.
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... and lest you wonder, Folks, here's the link ... http://blog.southernwx.com/2017/01/...phase-inside-the-left-side-of-circle-coldest/

great little write-up by Larry ... ?
 
metwannabe said:
I'm gonna need to see an accum map for this paste job
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Meh, next

sn10_acc.us_ma.png
 
The 12Z runs have an interesting teleconnections solutions. All of the models show the AO going negative, the NAO going negative strongly, the EPO and WPO also going heavily negative. I still keeps the PNA negative but everything else is lining up nicely for the period of Dec 20 to Jan 10th 2022 as the MJO looks to head into 7, then 8, and then into one. For the SE, 7 is cool, 8 and 1 are cold for Dec/Jan
 
MichaelJ said:
The 12Z runs have an interesting teleconnections solutions. All of the models show the AO going negative, the NAO going negative strongly, the EPO and WPO also going heavily negative. I still keeps the PNA negative but everything else is lining up nicely for the period of Dec 20 to Jan 10th 2022 as the MJO looks to head into 7, then 8, and then into one. For the SE, 7 is cool, 8 and 1 are cold for Dec/Jan
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Looks good almost, but without a +PNA we may as well have Barney Fife at quarterback ...
 
GaWx said:
Hilarious! But the good news is that we might just get that +PNA eventually if it does go into MJO 8 because I think that phase is decently correlated with a +PNA. ?
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In my opinion that -PNA is there because the ridge in the EPO region is in the wrong place. The -AO and-NAO is not going to do anything to save us from that. It will I guess keep us average to slightly below but nothing crazy and likely won't get most of us what we want. Maybe phase 8, IF we get there will push the ridge eastward in a more favorable location. I think it's a 50/50 shot but the Euro stalling in phase 7 and looping back is a real possibility also.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
View attachment 97335
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Yeah, the Bleaklies (based on 0Z) are back to being their typical purely bleak. And as @Myfrotho704_ showed, even the latest CFS (12Z) is pretty bleak for most of its run except the last week, when it finally cools to near normal. What happened to all of those cold late Dec to mid Jan weeks on earlier CFS runs? Fortunately both of these models suck since the CFS often turns on a dime from one run to the next (like it did here to much warmer) and the Bleaklies are almost always bleak.
Anyway, enjoy the wx because it is the only wx you’ve got. ? The model twists and turns will keep us entertained, regardless.
 
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