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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Well now
Goodness the GFS has 30-40F drops in Kansas/Nebraska in six hours
iGRXY
Member
I think the GFS is about to deliver the goods potentially with heights really building over Alaska and Greenland
iGRXY
Member
GFS is definitely about to be cooking with grease.
Hour 280 guys, hour 280.
Probably some severe prior to that arctic front, but maybe just maybe this is the pattern change so desperately wanted.
AK starts to thaw, that's what we need
Avalanche
Member
Get that ridge to pump just a tad northward.AK starts to thaw, that's what we need
iGRXY
Member
Although, I think the GFS is probably a week early with what it's showing, this is definitely what a favorable MJO and blocking over top can look like. This is a true artic airmass that flies in.
iGRXY
Member
Definitely some severe weather with that front as well. Those in Central and eastern Georgia and the eastern Carolinas will probably go through 3 different seasons in about a span of 12 hours. further west we hold onto the CAD until we warm into the low 60's that morning before being in the 40's by lunch.
I’m not a fan of the -PNA, but it can offer a better chance of precipitation, of course the trade off is often WAA, so if we keep the -PNA then Miller Bs will probably become something to watch if we settle into that pattern in early jan
iGRXY
Member
You can see the GFS is looking like it's wanting to try again but we really need to get that upper low out of NW Canada and Alaska to really start pumping heights up the west coast. But that -NAO is something fierce.
Early January on the CFS 06z
I remember the cold push in December 2017 (also Niña) (pretty sure this was the year). Record cold for major US cities on New Year’s Eve. I even got flurries on New Years night here. Big SER was showing up on modeling and the cold push through the middle of the country eventually wiped it out and we were well below normal for several weeks.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
That’s how the frost looked here this morning.
Yeah I remember that winter... Everybody kept saying it was going to get warm and That kept getting pushed off.
StormWatch
Member
I don't beleive there would be a strong +PNA signature, going with more of a continuous slight -PNA/netrual or even a weak +PNA at times. The blocking over the North Pacific would be stationary, but meandering, fluctuating the PNA.
iGRXY
Member
This is what we end with. Out west looks bad again but we are starting to build another -NAO and another lobe of cold air is pushing SE. One thing that is really starting to appear is a ton of CAD field days showing up in between the cold and is really moderating the SER at least east of the mountains.
