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Pattern December to Remember

I’m still thinking January 15th or later for first chance of winter storm E of ?. Always lag or temporary air masses in the models during pattern changes to push out anything special by 2 weeks at least.
 
Everything way out can certainly change, but even though stuff may be changing up top, to me it looks the same for the SE as far as the eye can see. The Pacific ridge is still too far west and needs to scoot further east and poleward hopefully. Get the PNA at least neutral and stop the dump out west.

Good to see more red showing up on the top of the world, but hoping it gets in a better configuration for the SE the following week. Maybe this is the start. ??‍♂️

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png
 
Looking at the eps members has kind of the step down to cold look more than a single dump of cold. With the cold/trough loading in west Canada and the PNW it'll be hard to bodily spread that east through Christmas. That said it does seem like we can sneak in short periods of cold or almost a gradient type pattern with wedge leading into Christmas
 
Looking at the eps members has kind of the step down to cold look more than a single dump of cold. With the cold/trough loading in west Canada and the PNW it'll be hard to bodily spread that east through Christmas. That said it does seem like we can sneak in short periods of cold or almost a gradient type pattern with wedge leading into Christmas
I think our best hope for seasonal weather at Christmas is a wedge pattern, similar to what we just saw this week. I'm totally discounting a massive cold dump like the GFS operational is showing - it's 300+ hours out anyway, so why waste print on these solutions?
 
I think our best hope for seasonal weather at Christmas is a wedge pattern, similar to what we just saw this week. I'm totally discounting a massive cold dump like the GFS operational is showing - it's 300+ hours out anyway, so why waste print on these solutions?

Agree…slim likelihood of things playing out like that. Especially in modeling that far out


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