The hell you do! Bite your tongue! ?
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
The hell you do! Bite your tongue! ?
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Cold dump out west on latest GFS. Cad areas stay chilly though
Santa setting up our Christmas presents under the Christmas tree 
Big boy block setting up to keep that heat locked in? At this point the -NAO and -EPO could link up through the Arctic and we would still ? down here
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Not the biggest fan of cold except around Christmas. I’d take this ?
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Quite shocked cold lovers aren’t posting about the 0z GFS. I know it’s the long range gfs but after the warm up next week I barely got above 50 IMBY. Then the whole southeast got quite chilly leading right up to Christmas
StormWatch
Member
I'm forecasting a colder pattern between those dates based from the evolution of the upper stratosphere PV and the nature/placements of areas of blocking across the high latitudes. The blocking over the North Pacific Ocean is influencing the upper PV currently (and will continue to do so) due to warm air extending into the upper stratosphere. As higher heights build over Russia at 10mb and at 500mb over the NAO region, and over Europe/extending over the Arctic ocean, (in the near future) the upper PV will begin to extend lower geopotential heights over the Central US/Eastern US within the suggested time frame. Basically, I think there would be a partial PV disruption, but not enough stratospheric warming across the pole to cause a full disruption. The warmer air within the higher heights over the NAO region and Europe may not extend into the upper stratosphere, but there would probably be enough influence to cause lower stratosphere mesoscale PVs to track into the mid-latitudes of the Continental US - east of the Rockies. If everything comes together as I think it will; I wouldn't be surprised to see models becoming colder within time of the suggested time frame.
Correct, of course the pattern change will not be instant - colder periods at time before the colder pattern. I think the warm up and cold pattern would be before Christmas, (colder pattern by the 22nd.)
Yes, it would be a gradual colder pattern, because there's going to be numerous of fronts sweeping through, and the coldest air mass would eventually translate to the Eastern US as the upper pattern across the higher latitudes evolve.
StormWatch
Member
To add further to my post above - taking a look at the upper PV, you can see the evolution of the PV in the 17th - 22nd time frame. As mentioned higher heights build at 10mb over Russia and the 3100/3120 geopotential height meanders around the North Pacific causing the PV to elongate and the core shifting to the south and east a tad pushing lower heights into the Continental US at 10mb. Even though, the coldest layers wouldn't propagate downward to the surface (likely not) from the upper PV, but lower heights I think would still be east of the Rockies in the lower stratosphere at 500mb due to enhancement from the lower heights above the 500mb layer from the upper PV and blocking in NAO/AO regions. In my opinion, the ridge we've been seeing east of the Rockies will eventually no longer exist on upcoming model runs and or vorticites of air from the ridge may force into the higher latitudes across the NAO region.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
To add further to my post above - taking a look at the upper PV, you can see the evolution of the PV in the 17th - 22nd time frame. As mentioned higher heights build at 10mb over Russia and the 3100/3120 geopotential height meanders around the North Pacific causing the PV to elongate and the core shifting to the south and east a tad pushing lower heights into the Continental US at 10mb. Even though, the coldest layers wouldn't propagate downward to the surface (likely not) from the upper PV, but lower heights I think would still be east of the Rockies in the lower stratosphere at 500mb due to enhancement from the lower heights above the 500mb layer from the upper PV and blocking in NAO/AO regions. In my opinion, the ridge we've been seeing east of the Rockies will eventually no longer exist on upcoming model runs and or vorticites of air from the ridge may force into the higher latitudes across the NAO region.
That's definitely not how this works
Broken024
Member
Come on be right.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Brrrrr
Yeah that was a crazy run; especially the progression of the storm across the mid section of the county and then the development of the storm offshore. Most of the wintery precip stayed just to the north, but still out in la la land. So just seeing the cold at Christmas looks good right now. Who knows, we get this type of cold maybe a clipper will hit on Christmas.
Thor
Member
ATLwxfan
Member
The pullback with successive runs will be gradual and painful. Amirite?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
ATLwxfan
Member
Lol clipper…what are thoooose? That’s up there with anafrontal.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
06z GEFS coming in much colder!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Typically doesn’t get real cold until about 10 days after MJO phase 7 or roughly 20 after phase 6. Lagged pentad average (5-day) 850 temp anomalies composites wrt MJO phase are about right timing-wise with when I’ve been thinking the past few weeks it tries to get cold. We probably start to flip in early January, perhaps peaking mid January near our peak snow climo
