Cary_Snow95
Member
With this type of evolution you’re gonna see a short lived cold shot followed by a ser before we get into a settled cold pattern
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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
ATLwxfan
Member
You have to wonder about pattern persistence here. Setting up to be a tough cycle to break.
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LickWx
Member
High of 48. So not only was Nicky wrong , but so was I! I said mid 40s not upper !
Cary_Snow95
Member
18z GEFS favors a western dump that fires up the ser around Christmas
36/36 mega frost watch
GFS finally showing this bad boy again .. only a matter of time before it takes over our pattern.. is it before Christmas? The day of? January 1-10? All would be fine with me!
Cary_Snow95
Member
This is December 22 and you can see the pieces trying to come together overtop … I would say December 27-January 3rd is our flip period
Cary_Snow95
Member
If you go verbatim off of modeling. In the past modeling almost always rushes pattern changes, I don’t see this being any different. We will have multiple ser flare ups late month as the western trough keeps getting dumped. Honestly though if this sets up by mid to late January I’m more than giddy. Basically prime climo
December to remember 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
“December to Remember”
Yes your lawnmowers will remember this
Temp anomalies before the really warm pattern has even started ?
Yes your lawnmowers will remember this
Temp anomalies before the really warm pattern has even started ?
StormWatch
Member
Are you talking about the Greenland block, the mega -NAO? Greenland block won't necessarily mess up the pattern across the Eastern US. A -NAO is typically a good thing for production of cold/winter storms. I know it's the long range GFS, but I can actually agree with that - because I mentioned that blocking can go towards Greenland and poleward as troughs forces the blocking from the upcoming cutting storms. The colder pattern between the 17th - 22nd is still a go!
I see nothing to lead me to believe there will be any pattern change between the 17th and 22nd. Doesn't matter how hard you look it's not there. If the MJO progression is actually correct then maybe by the 1st week in January.
17-22th is way to early
Cary_Snow95
Member
He must’ve meant of January ?
Agreed. While I do think it’s important that models are starting to pick up on changes, I don’t think we’ll see cold pattern dominate in the east until sometime in the first week of January. That’s not to so that we won’t see some quick hitting cool shots between now and then, but we should definitely see some warm days too the last week of the month
BelmontWX79
Member
By "colder" you mean from mega torch to just kinda torchy.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Welp, I tried to reverse jinx it, but my attempt seems as if it's going to not work.
Feels as if we made a deal with the devil with 12/25-26/2010, as it seems like most, if not all of the Decembers since then have torched.
If so, I have no regrets.
ATLwxfan
Member
I could see us going into that painful period of cold plunging to the western gulf and stalling west of the Mississippi while the ridge flares to the East. The all too familiar set up.
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