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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

e17 & e11 are full blown snowstorms, even to coastal SC. The others are a mixed bag for down here. NC fares better, but still a Wintry mess. The hit seems to be coming from a N. FL track, but I can't really get into the maps well right now.

We need this thing to go down to Central FL to avoid the NW screwfest.
 
For my SC Midlands friends, there is only one member of the EPS (out of 50) with anything substantial like the GEFS would like you to believe. And that member would start around the 28/29th, and it's around 7 inches.

In other words, don't trust the GEFS.
 
Lol so much for this, another JB bust. That's what happens when you dry hump 16 day GEFS mean snow maps, only confirms Shawn's point to consider their snow maps useless after day 10
Screen Shot 2017-12-22 at 4.42.30 AM.png
 
The Euro looked decent if you ask me. It tends to run on the drier side of the modeling so the low QPF totals are expected. I would be surprised to see it trend back toward the CMC and GFS ideas of a more amplified wetter system.
 
SD said:
The Euro looked decent if you ask me. It tends to run on the drier side of the modeling so the low QPF totals are expected. I would be surprised to see it trend back toward the CMC and GFS ideas of a more amplified wetter system.
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I need to come to Roxboro for this event! There's still a lot to work out, but I'm just not feeling this one. More times than not this year so far, the cold that arrives is not as cold as it was being modeled, so having this thing trend more S and colder, may not happen
 
Tarheel1 said:
I need to come to Roxboro for this event! There's still a lot to work out, but I'm just not feeling this one. More times than not this year so far, the cold that arrives is not as cold as it was being modeled, so having this thing trend more S and colder, may not happen
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I think CAD areas can have a sloppy track here and still get frozen over with a nice base for the next event to sit on top of. Cold air is actually on the right side of the mountains this time. I'm feeling a 29 degree rain storm that leaves us without power for 6-7 days. Damn can't win for losing. The south trend is evident the last 3-4 runs and we're still a long ways out. Hopefully it keeps pushing south so it pukes snow instead of freezing rain
 
Shane's favorite chart of late.... if this verifies 1) next month light bill will suck 2) there will be a winter storm in there
c3c1dd7d785bcba7f71bc211f37972b0.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Huntsville NWS adding frozen in:
Wednesday
A slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday Night
A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday
A chance of rain, snow, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
 
Man i love not being in the bullseye this far out. I hope things keep shifting south as the regional gfs run were, but further south. Charlies right, this pattern is loaded like crazy. This up coming possible winterstorm next week, will also get things really going for another one. Cold air will be available much more.
 
Long way to go but I think the final solution will be between the GEFS and the EPS. On the GEFS the wintry weather is probably 150 miles north of the current line and 100 miles south of the EPS give or take. I would lean more heavily to the EPS than the GEFS
 
MichaelJ said:
Long way to go but I think the final solution will be between the GEFS and the EPS. On the GEFS the wintry weather is probably 150 miles north of the current line and 100 miles south of the EPS give or take. I would lean more heavily to the EPS than the GEFS
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You could be right, but ive seen many of them start up north and ended inbthe gulf lol. Bringing the deep south some love. Maybe im wishcasting to much LOL!!
 
Just getting caught up from the runs last night. Models still are different from each other, and the GFS op is all over the place. The ensembles continue to look great for here, though. Euro showing a storm, too. So is the Canadian. The specifics still need to be ironed out, but I think it's looking more and more like a winter storm is going to impact a lot of NC late next week.
 
I feel like the pattern is there. Model wars and biases aside, Euro and EPS struggling just as bad as gfs and gefs. The cold source at least at 2m will be there or damn close. That high is gonna provide some low level cold for sure
 
accu35 said:
You could be right, but ive seen many of them start up north and ended inbthe gulf lol. Bringing the deep south some love. Maybe im wishcasting to much LOL!!
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Well that is certainly a possibility but not as likely IMO, but as I said, a long way to go. Just to be clear here, I am not wanting for this to happen as I would like to see most everyone get hit just don't think it will
 
1300m said:
That's really where we are now. At this point I think we know there's several waves approaching between 12/28 and 1/3 or so but nothing beyond that is decided. There is clearly a winter storm signal on the ensembles and in the next 2-3 days we may really start to see the EPS hone in on something.
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Eps keeps trending that way each run . Like you said hopefully it starts to key in on a specific system soon. The most interesting part is the multiple wave idea. Realistic shot a multiple threats over the next two weeks for some areas
 
deltadog03 said:
I feel like the pattern is there. Model wars and biases aside, Euro and EPS struggling just as bad as gfs and gefs. The cold source at least at 2m will be there or damn close. That high is gonna provide some low level cold for sure
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Yeah the PAC region ia a convoluted mess and wreaking havoc on NWP outputs. Funny thing about the GFS ensembles from Dec 10 thru 26th had the necessary cold air in place at the time but the pattern clearly didn't support a stormy period with the setup.

Conversely the upcoming 10 days have a lot more of a storm signal with all that energy.
 
WPC
"ALBEIT WITH AN EYE FOR WPC
CONTINUITY AND WITH ONLY MINIMAL INCLUSION OF DETERMINITSIC MODEL
INPUT. LEANED THE AFOEMENTIONED BLEND TOWARD THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN THAT WITH TIME OFFERS A SOMEWHAT COOLER AND PRECIPITATION
SUPPRESSED PATTERN THAT SEEMS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE ADVENT OF
SO MUCH COLD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN US. WRN US
PRECIPITATION FROM THESE MEANS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT
RECENT DETERMISTIC MODELS TRENDS OFFER UNCERTAINTY WITH THEIR
DEPICTION OF MORE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPENT OVER THE WEST
LATER NEXT WEEK."
 
Masiello trying to restore some realism for those in the Mid-Atlantic and NE US, giving credence to potentially an interior New England event, even w/ such a storm, still could be front end snow/ice in the traditional CAD areas if there's enough cold air around
Screen Shot 2017-12-22 at 7.00.11 AM.png
 
gawxnative said:
Fairly widespread Flash Flood event in Arkansas now with training cells slowly "sagging" SE .. May impact NW MS, and West TN this afternoon/evening
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While it missed on details and had frozen precipitation on the northern side of this for several runs in long range ,the GFS had this flooding at hour 384 and never lost it.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
The GFS has become so bad, it makes this process very unenjoyable. What’s the point in watching if it’s wrong?
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Look for trends, not specifics, and it won't hurt so bad. Like the 6z has a great look at the end of the month and into the first week of Jan. Persistent cold, not over blown, with moisture running underneath. That is a great trend...if it shows up again, lol. Which to your point, it won't, lol. But, it's winter, so it could, and all my life weather has been a guessing game, and it still is :) If it has something you want, and it's only two days away, it will probably happen, but not on you, lol. That's been my experience with Goofy, but it's better than what I had in the 60's which was an aviation forecast on pbs at 7 in the morning where they explained nothing, and said nothing about tomorrow. And happy talk tv mets with smiley suns and frowning clouds, lol. Actually, I did about as well as the tv mets just guessing. If they said Sun the rain would be ending followed by bitter cold, I could guess I'd see some flurries, and be right a lot of the time, even when they didn't mention it. Just by interested observation, and I still use that today, even with Goofy. So, you are probably your own best weather predictor. You can be right most of the time when it comes to winter weather in the south by just saying no! Tv mets make a living doing that, and are usually right :)
 
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