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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Stupid GFS. On the bright side the CMC looks to have maybe a miller B at the end of its run...


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DP's in the teens across northern NC as precip is moving in

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Cary_Snow95 said:
18z
gfs_mslpa_us_28.png

00z
gfs_mslpa_us_27.png
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Wedge much stronger and further south on 0z
 
Models almost always off with CAD, step in right direction. Messy miller b icy threat probably further s/se then modeled here
778ebe09c19d54d69cebcd3b010e4585.jpg


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metwannabe said:
GFS has a strong wedge but looks like it erodes way too fast especially with that 1048 H up in the NE

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Chances are some of the folks in Northern NC down to I-40 would probably be more snowy than icy with that strong of a high.
 
deltadog03 said:
Ya good luck gfs with a 1045mb+ high. That's gonna get shoved further south. And if the high builds in a bit quicker that's icy to at least SC maybe even GA (me)
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Yeah we KNOW what happens with 1045mb highs in that position with wedging established 24 hours prior. That low is getting shoved southward. Likely gets shoved towards Northern FL in time...that look screams major icing GA/Carolinas.
 
Sends the low right up towards WV, leaving this behind (trash this run as a whole):

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Stormsfury said:
Yeah we KNOW what happens with 1045mb highs in that position with wedging established 24 hours prior. That low is getting shoved southward. Likely gets shoved towards Northern FL in time...that look screams major icing GA/Carolinas.
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If the GFS wasn't dumb with the way it tracks the low (and is notorious for with its progressive, whatadobob) it would have been a much wetter and Northern precip shield than even the 00z Euro solution from last night. With the track across N. FL.
 
1300m said:
GFS had a major winter storm for all of the CAD regions, it just didn't know it. That was embarrassing and I hope NCEP is looking at this. I do realize it is far enough out in time that these poor runs right now don't really matter, but come on, the GFS should be better than that.
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It had all the hallmarks of a CAD event for the CAD areas and didn’t know it. Makes me so proud of our American model.


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I wonder if there's any way to resolve the modeling issues with picking up CAD, as I've seen that it's really just the NAM that does well with it. I've said a few times that if there's going to be a CAD like situation, forget the temps that are forecasted as CAD situations have a mind of it's own with the kind of temps you can see, but with potential ice storms, there just has to be a way for it to be better when we're closer!
 
I really do not like the look of that for areas of SC & GA if you're not ZR fans. Way too early to draw lines based off that map, though.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Definitely headed in the right direction. If this pattern materializes, then we will have a great start to winter. January of 1977 was cold, but it was also very suppressed. I can remember snow in Miami that year. January of 2003 was the year that a clipper dropped 8.5 inches of snow here due to incredible ratios. Let's not forget the Christmas snow in 2010. We all know what happened in March of 1960. I would say that the projected pattern would deliver the goods. Now, all we have to do is keep that look until verification time.
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77 wasnt suppressed that bad for west tn midsouth... got well over 30 inches total 77 winter
 
Clem282340 said:
So there no way we can get snow in the upstate with this setup
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Much more likely per the GEFS mean (I have not taken a look at the member MSLP locations yet). But If you're from a line Just North of Columbia, Over Towards Augusta, Macon, Even Coastal areas.. there's a problem here.
 
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