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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Robert West said:
Central SC doesn't get hit on storms like the one reflecting on the latest GFS during the Dec. 30th time frame so it's hard to even get excited about that look. We need CAD unless you got a ideal Low placement and obvious cold air which never occurs
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It seems so hard to get a storm in the Midlands of South Carolina!!
 
pcbjr said:
Appreciate the kind thoughts, but frankly, I don't even see a freeze on the horizon down here, much less anything reliable that would suggest anything beyond some brief cool shots ... :(
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Phil, we need a direct hit from the cold air, not these drive bys. When the 0 line is in Cuba is when Goofy wants to bring you some love :) As long as the cold air just brushes past us, it will be cold chasing moisture, and losing down here, just like last time. Lows need to go well south, or some over running into a strong cad. Lows above us just bring rain, and not even cold rain. T
 
I think the Euro just took a big steamy dump for our 29th storm! Good thing the op runs are tossed
 
I bet we'll have some back and forth with the models the next couple of days. Still 8 to 9 days out.
 
dsaur said:
Phil, we need a direct hit from the cold air, not these drive bys. When the 0 line is in Cuba is when Goofy wants to bring you some love :) As long as the cold air just brushes past us, it will be cold chasing moisture, and losing down here, just like last time. Lows need to go well south, or some over running into a strong cad. Lows above us just bring rain, and not even cold rain. T
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Unless you get an ULL moving overhead and then all bets are off :)
 
Euro actually apparently still shows an ice storm in NC but it might be just at the start with what I'm looking at...
 
Euro still has a storm, that's the big picture. The finer details are going to keep going back and forth the next few days.
 
Robert West said:
Central SC doesn't get hit on storms like the one reflecting on the latest GFS during the Dec. 30th time frame so it's hard to even get excited about that look. We need CAD unless you got a ideal Low placement and obvious cold air which never occurs
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All signs point to the storm track further South with such a strong high (possibly) over head. Don't sweat the little details yet.
 
Shawn said:
All signs point to the storm track further South with such a strong high (possibly) over head. Don't sweat the little details yet.
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It's been nearly 4 years man and we live in the arm pit of Hell. Pretty hard not to sweat lol. I'm believing though.
 
And although the GFS really isn't worth looking at, if the GFS were to verify as suggested, you can toss the temps for now. I suspect the HP isn't is deep but this is a case in which the NW trend isn't likely.

Really with CAD situations, it takes a while to sort out the temps.
 
Shawn said:
All signs point to the storm track further South with such a strong high (possibly) over head. Don't sweat the little details yet.
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Its all about these shortwavesas they enter the conus starting in 4 or 5 days. Then we'll see a parade of them. Watch them and hope they can dig down and come on around. Not have a A) rope yanking on them so they can release clean and B) get tucked in the 4 corners cut off. The cold will be fine with the blocking we are seeing. Espeacilly at surface east of apps.
 
To be honest the GFS op ,after showing a chance on the Christmas storm in the long range for several runs , locked on to what looks like will happen this past Sunday and has not budged. Be interesting to see what happens with next week because the Euro is sure doing a lot of flip flopping itself.
 
Robert West said:
It's been nearly 4 years man and we live in the arm pit of Hell. Pretty hard not to sweat lol. I'm believing though.
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These runs are slightly reminding me of Feb of 2010 when we did okay. Lets see if we can start sending this thing into Southern FL and have it trend back up.
 
Main thing to take away this far out is that a storm of some type between Christmas and New Years on all the models with the details too early to know yet. I will say if that High in Canada shifts a little East and South from the current EURO projection, it is game on for most of us. The CAD would be tremendously strong and deep if that happens
 
Shawn said:
These runs are slightly reminding me of Feb of 2010 when we did okay. Lets see if we can start sending this thing into Southern FL and have it trend back up.
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In 2010, I loved the weather but I was still learning and didn't know much about the models back then. What did the models show with that storm in 2010 the days leading up to it? I remember that the chance of snow kind of came out of nowhere early to mid week before the storm hit that Friday. I also remember that it was suppose to be a bigger hit East and Southeast of us but then CAE ended up being in the Jackpot area.
 
I actually thought 2010 started out looking like a good snowstorm and then it trended to nothing for a while before coming back. But there may have been a few runs here and there that were warm, before the GFS started to sling the low to Cuba.

**If** this storm works out south of TN/NC, I think the better comp is Feb 2014. Some have said that the pattern looks sort of similar to that.
 
MichaelJ said:
Main thing to take away this far out is that a storm of some type between Christmas and New Years on all the models with the details too early to know yet. I will say if that High in Canada shifts a little East and South from the current EURO projection, it is game on for most of us. The CAD would be tremendously strong and deep if that happens
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We don't even know the true strength of it yet. Looking back at the 1060-1070mb fiasco and all.
 
Robert West said:
In 2010, I loved the weather but I was still learning and didn't know much about the models back then. What did the models show with that storm in 2010 the days leading up to it? I remember that the chance of snow kind of came out of nowhere early to mid week before the storm hit that Friday. I also remember that it was suppose to be a bigger hit East and Southeast of us but then CAE ended up being in the Jackpot area.
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You know, I just tried to pull up the old thread and it seems to be gone for good from the old boards. I remember a cutter or something at some point early on, then a big TN/NC hit, and it slowly moved South and GFS had it to Cuba at one point. I remember, the SE forum was dominated by NC posters, so it wasn't very popular to see successive runs of CAE getting a big hit after the initial runs of them getting it.

I remember talking with Brooks Garner (WISTV met) about it and what he was going to do on air etc. He sent me some stuff. It was modeled 5 days in advance, for a change. for what happened here. Stormsfury's back yard had way too much snow modeled though by the Canadian.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I actually thought 2010 started out looking like a good snowstorm and then it trended to nothing for a while before coming back. But there may have been a few runs here and there that were warm, before the GFS started to sling the low to Cuba.

**If** this storm works out south of TN/NC, I think the better comp is Feb 2014. Some have said that the pattern looks sort of similar to that.
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I'm mainly speaking on the feeling; not using any kind of analog or anything because we still don't know many details at all. Not even the HP strength, how fast, slow, etc. The models going back and forth makes me feel a bit confident that someone in the SE will see Winter weather right before or right around New Years time.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Anyone have the eps panels
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No individual panel but here is 15 day mean.
1bca013ccc4105fc181177c99b4bd66f.jpg


Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 
metwannabe said:
I'm liking the east to west orientation of the dividing line

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
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Just needs to be about 4 and 1/2 hours driving time south to make it fair ... LOL ... :confused:
~~~~~~~~~
Seriously - Looks nice and here's hoping you're still unwrapping presents on and after New Years Day! ;)
 
pcbjr said:
Appreciate the kind thoughts, but frankly, I don't even see a freeze on the horizon down here, much less anything reliable that would suggest anything beyond some brief cool shots ... :(
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Phil, we need a direct hit from the cold air, not these drive bys. When the 0 line is in Cuba is when Goofy wants to bring you some love :) As long as the cold air just brushes past us, it will be cold chasing moisture, and losing down here, just like last time. Lows need to go well south, or some over running into a strong cad. Lows over head just bring rain, and not even cold rain. T
SoutheastRidge said:
Unless you get an ULL moving overhead and then all bets are off :)
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Lol, Haven't seen any, but would love to, when it has it's own cold air with it, to add to any by the ground. T
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I actually thought 2010 started out looking like a good snowstorm and then it trended to nothing for a while before coming back. But there may have been a few runs here and there that were warm, before the GFS started to sling the low to Cuba.

**If** this storm works out south of TN/NC, I think the better comp is Feb 2014. Some have said that the pattern looks sort of similar to that.
Click to expand...

The GFS showed a widespread boardwide Snowstorm on Dec. 13th-15th and trended away from it while the European showed nothing. The European came back and showed a significantly different scenario than what it had shown all along on the 20th and held onto it, before the GFS folded back to it on the 22nd. It was all uphill from there.
 
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