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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Lol I would take a repeat of those two storms any day. The pattern looks good still, but I smell an ice storm for someone with this pattern as well at the moment.

January, 2011 - would love for this to happen again
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Jan 2011 was epic. Several hours of solid 10:1+ ratios around here followed by some freezing rain as the low moved out. One of my all time favorite winter storms
 
January, 2011 - would love for this to happen again
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Same here, I definitely got a kick out of how Fayetteville picked up more snow than Raleigh, Greensboro, and Charlotte from this storm, Rockingham was the big winner w/ 10" of snow. I picked up about 5" at my place, more than half of which came in a heavy band that struck late in the afternoon. This was what the radar looked like right before it changed over to sleet/freezing rain in this heavy frontogenetical snow band, bright banding is evident, thus a lot of the snowflakes were at least partially melting in the midst of a classic mid-level warm nose before they reached the ground. We also had a couple appetizers in central NC that immediately preceded this system...
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January 7-8 2011 NC Snowmap.png

January 10-11 2011 NC Snowmap.gif
 
Same here, I definitely got a kick out of how Fayetteville picked up more snow than Raleigh, Greensboro, and Charlotte from this storm, Rockingham was the big winner w/ 10" of snow. I picked up about 5" at my place, more than half of which came in a heavy band that struck late in the afternoon. This was what the radar looked like right before it changed over to sleet/freezing rain in this heavy frontogenetical snow band, bright banding is evident, thus a lot of the snowflakes were at least partially melting in the midst of a classic mid-level warm nose before they reached the ground. We also had a couple appetizers in central NC that immediately preceded this system...
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These maps make me think I'm remembering the wrong storm. If I'm not mistaken, Auburn was playing in the national championship and it was a cold high ratio snow? Could be remembering wrong.
 
GFS digging a lot less or West. 1054 high entering over Minnesota.
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While the 1050+ high might be a little overdone on the GFS, the Euro isn't that far behind and it's considerably closer to climatological normals than the 1060-1070 highs it kept trying to drop down the front range of the Rockies this past week...
 
Same here, I definitely got a kick out of how Fayetteville picked up more snow than Raleigh, Greensboro, and Charlotte from this storm, Rockingham was the big winner w/ 10" of snow. I picked up about 5" at my place, more than half of which came in a heavy band that struck late in the afternoon. This was what the radar looked like right before it changed over to sleet/freezing rain in this heavy frontogenetical snow band, bright banding is evident, thus a lot of the snowflakes were at least partially melting in the midst of a classic mid-level warm nose before they reached the ground. We also had a couple appetizers in central NC that immediately preceded this system...
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We got a good storm off that in Columbia.
 
With the ensembles starting to come into agreement about a storm and cold air (not necessarily on the p type or the amount, just the storm/cold idea) I think some of us will see some type of winter storm and we won't have to wear Bermuda's on Christmas at least.
 
biggest difference my untrained eyes see here is the HP dropping down out of Canda into the CONUS further east keeping the storm more suppressed
 
Central SC doesn't get hit on storms like the one reflecting on the latest GFS during the Dec. 30th time frame so it's hard to even get excited about that look. We need CAD unless you got a ideal Low placement and obvious cold air which never occurs
 
GFS still showing the storm. That's the important thing right now. The trend is definitely still positive for a winter storm here near the end of the month into the new year.
 
Central SC doesn't get hit on storms like the one reflecting on the latest GFS during the Dec. 30th time frame so it's hard to even get excited about that look. We need CAD unless you got a ideal Low placement and obvious cold air which never occurs
It's either going to trend more suppressed or trend back towards a cutter. Just need to lock on to a suppressed trend and this is a great start IMO and like Webber we have some action right on the heels of this one. 1-2 punch potential
 
Gfs is slowly moving toward the euro idea

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Has a wintry mix to rain to snow kind of look. If that high was just a little further east to really push the cold air down deeper into CAD we'd be in business, of course there will no doubt be a warm nose too. Models struggle with CAD all the time, usually under perform so I like where we are right now

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That was headed for something big for us before it got screwy around hr 162. Ensembles may have some big dogs for NC.

Past ensembles have already shown some big dogs here. I think the last run had 6, up from 5 the run before that.
 
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