Brief snippet from WPC discussion last night
"IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, MODELS SHOW GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THE HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD ONTARIO/QUEBEC. ARCTIC SURFACE FRONT, THE LEADING EDGE OF A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MIDWEST ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY TUESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR TIMING DIFFERENCES HERE, WITH THE GFS FASTER TO PUSH THE ARCTIC FRONT EAST RELATIVE TO MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE DESCRIBED CONSIDERATIONS, THE WPC FORECAST WAS GENERALLY WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS FOR DAYS 3-5."
"DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE, AS DESCRIBE ABOVE, MODELS SHOW A SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN TAKING HOLD, BUT WITH SOME MAINTENANCE OF A RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE ARCTIC. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST TUE NIGHT/WED. MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR CONSENSUS SURROUNDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S., WITH A LARGE DEGREE OF RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY AS WELL. THUS, THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED HEAVILY TOWARD THE ECENS/NAEFS MEANS DURING DAYS 6-7. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURES WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. BY THU AND BEYOND."
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