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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Webberweather53 said:
This storm at day 9-10 on the Euro and EPS is already trending NW towards the Mid-Atlantic and NE US lmao. Hopefully this doesn't turn into another Lakes/OH Valley Cutter which is the staple in a NINA...
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Yeah, as the high pressure trends much stronger to the NW
 
hopefully were starting to level off on the warming trend.. 540 line further south than 12z for the first "cold" blast. edit: literally the same.. *sigh* edit 2: Temp anomalies are cooler than 12z over the southeast..
 
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Tarheel1 said:
Yeah, as the high pressure trends much stronger to the NW
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That's also largely because the ensemble mean smears out the true amplitude of the high w/ increasing range as uncertainty increases and the high was weaker on this morning's 0z run vs yesterday's 12z so I wouldn't really call that a trend... An ensemble matched mean which accounts for the loss of amplitude w/ increasing member spread probably wouldn't look too different over the 3 runs
 
This is absolutely pitiful. All this excitement for nothing it seems like for now. Makes us look like fools to get excited about the pattern. What an embarrassment.
 
Pretty soon, we’re gonna have to start adding highs together to get to the same strength as the ones we were seeing the other day!
 
Storm5 said:
Good thing it does not have much support


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I wouldn't say it doesn't have much support, it was there on the last run just not quite as strong & the Euro also is hinting at a brief warm-up in the same general timeframe, obviously for CAD favored areas of the Carolinas and GA this could favor ice if the timing is right...
gfs_T850a_us_31.png

ecmwf_T850a_us_9.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
I wouldn't say it doesn't have much support, it was there on the last run just not quite as strong & the Euro also is hinting at a brief warm-up in the same general timeframe, obviously for CAD favored areas of the Carolinas and GA this could favor ice if the timing is right...
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Meh it’s own ensembles don’t agree. Guess we will see
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Eps is a little warmer but nothing like the gfs op is showing .


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GeorgiaGirl said:
At least this cutter looks like the kind of stuff that I've seen help change the pattern back.
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That works about as well as having a buddy go talk to a pretty girl for you. :)
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Funny thing is there is still a high pressure of 1050 on this thing but it's in Canada.
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Only problem is it's at day 7-8 and given the known cold biases (which is related to the high MSLP depicted in the model here) on the GFS especially over a fresh snowpack (as will be the case in SE Canada), wake me up when it gets inside day 4-5. As I discussed earlier, the non-local mixing scheme within the GFS usually means CAD trends stronger as verification nears but I highly doubt the surface high to the NE will be that strong
gfs_mslpaNorm_us_30.png
 
Storm5 said:
Meh it’s own ensembles don’t agree. Guess we will see
75b1651e54c49ec5cef36f1f605039e6.jpg



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They don't support it... yet, but there's a very clear trend in recent runs towards a bigger warm-up, won't be long before we see positive anomalies again over the SE US if this continues... Again, for CAD favored areas of the Carolinas and GA, the increasing WAA over top of a residual arctic airmass could mean the anomalies are still below-well below normal beneath 850 hPa
Unknown.gif
 
Storm5 said:
Meh it’s own ensembles don’t agree. Guess we will see
75b1651e54c49ec5cef36f1f605039e6.jpg


Eps is a little warmer but nothing like the gfs op is showing .


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Similarly the EPS although a tad warmer for now is also trending warmer in this timeframe as our storm system (as I showed earlier) is trending NW along the mid-Atlantic & NE US coasts. There's certainly more support for this than you think & it's growing w/ time

Unknown.gif
 
told all these people it was gonna be cold and stay cold smh

Its debatable it even really gets cold period lmao, we've been colder already...
 
Ah distinctly I remember
Earlier in this December
The southeast ridge’s blazing ember
Showed up once and then some more

But then the dawning of the morrow
Broke anew and drowned our sorrow
For later runs we sought to borrow
Kicked the ridge back out the door
 
Webberweather53 said:
Similarly the EPS although a tad warmer for now is also trending warmer in this timeframe as our storm system (as I showed earlier) is trending NW along the mid-Atlantic & NE US coasts. There's certainly more support for this than you think & it's growing w/ time

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Not much change in CAD areas. Not my problem. We got shafted on the last storm. Everyone bakes while we revel in glory this time
 
Torchtember said:
Not much change in CAD areas. Not my problem. We got shafted on the last storm. Everyone bakes while we revel in glory this time
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Not much change in the CAD areas? You sure about that because the ensemble mean has warmed more than 5C in the low-mid levels the past few runs, that's not something you can just throw caution to the wind to
 
I wish people up north could hear us right now lol! I'm sure most of them pray for way less snow and warmer temps.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Not much change in the CAD areas? You sure about that because the ensemble mean has warmed more than 5C in the low-mid levels the past few runs, that's not something you can just throw caution to the wind to
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There's actually a stronger CAD signature on the last frame than the 2nd. You can see it sharpen up down the western side of NC. I can't speak for CAD areas as far south as Georgia but I know CAD is almost always underdone this far out. Stronger signal now IMO
 
Clayton Reid said:
No offe
No offense, but if we keep this up there won't be anything to watch but severe weather if the warming trend keeps up.
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By then, the NAO will be negative and there will be CAD after CAD after CAD with no instability.
 
Torchtember said:
There's actually a stronger CAD signature on the last frame than the 2nd. You can see it sharpen up down the western side of NC. I can't speak for CAD areas as far south as Georgia but I know CAD is almost always underdone this far out. Stronger signal now IMO
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The CAD signature is stronger because the low-level warm air advection at 850 hPa is stronger as a consequence of the low pressure track being further NW than previous suites, however if the low trends so far NW like GFS shows and it ends up deep into the OH Valley, we'll have to contend w/ divergence over the CAD dome which makes CAD dome increasingly shallow
 
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