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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

WeatherWatch said:
Correct, there's no Christmas system. Yes, I said that there could be a Christmas system days ago, things change. It's better to be cautious/aware of something that could turn out to be something significant, whether it turns out to be right or wrong. The system after Christmas (the cutter) would be the one to watch out for.
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Oh ok I was confused cause the last line of your earlier post said you were interested in the system after the “ cutter “ . so really your interested in the 28th-30th system . We call that the 1300m system as he has been honking about that period for over a week

I understand your thoughts now sorry for the confusion
 
serious question how do any of you KNOW the future? how can you say there is no Christmas system with such authority? i submit right now nothing may be showing on the models but in the real world of weather a storm indeed could happen.
 
It's 5 days away, but the models aren't showing it anymore.
BillT said:
serious question how do any of you KNOW the future? how can you say there is no Christmas system with such authority? i submit right now nothing may be showing on the models but in the real world of weather a storm indeed could happen.
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BillT said:
serious question how do any of you KNOW the future? how can you say there is no Christmas system with such authority? i submit right now nothing may be showing on the models but in the real world of weather a storm indeed could happen.
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We don't, but technology today allows us to predict the weather better than in previous years, and as time goes on, data will be added and algorithms will get better and better, hopefully. Unless you understand the pattern we are in perfectly and every system around the world and it's status, you can't just say it could snow on Christmas unexpectedly. Yes, it could NW trend on us, but I think this one's evaporating each run more and more, which in turn means that the alignment of systems in response to today's conditions will be off to prevent a storm.
 
Y'all I've moved some post to the banter thread but I'll be honest, deleting them is much easier... so as to keep the peace please banter in the banter thread and weather discussion in the discussion thread. Please and thank you.

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If we don't cash in here in SC in the next few weeks, we are doomed. Then we will be left saying "Maybe next year"
 
BillT said:
serious question how do any of you KNOW the future? how can you say there is no Christmas system with such authority? i submit right now nothing may be showing on the models but in the real world of weather a storm indeed could happen.
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I think there still is a possible Christmas system. Some areas across the eastern US have a chance of snow in the forecast for Sun and Mon so there has to be some sort of possible system.
 
12z gefs
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1300m said:
Appears to be split almost 50/50 between suppressed, southern winter storms and cutters.

Edit: Or some of those other misses could be timing-related.
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Not to be negative Nancy and if that's the case. I'll go with cutter at this time. To many times I've seen how that battle plays out. Still a long way to go...
 
BillT said:
serious question how do any of you KNOW the future? how can you say there is no Christmas system with such authority? i submit right now nothing may be showing on the models but in the real world of weather a storm indeed could happen.
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Well, there was a wave coming down over the Lee of the Rockies that may have deepend a system via vorticity advection. But now, it's unlikely that a storm system will develop during Christmas.
 
1300m said:
Well if it cuts, there's still a good chance of a Miller B and frozen precipitation in CAD areas. Some may think this is nuts, but I can actually see how there could be two rounds of wintry weather out of this with this being round one, and the potential for an even more suppressed storm behind it after 1/1.

Edit: In fact, some of the GEFS members depict such a scenario and some have two rounds of wintry weather before 1/1. Lots of possibilities...
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Yes. I can see that as well. It really wouldn’t surprise me if there were two rounds as has been modeled by the GFS/GEFS. We are headed into a pattern that is loaded with potential!


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Storm5 said:
The 28th-31st is starting to be a period we can pinpoint as a threat . The 1300m special


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I know it's the long range GFS and has very little chance of verifying but can you post the 384 hour clown map for the 12z GFS run? For entertainment purposes only of course...lol :)
 
Really would like to see the Mid-south get involved with the Storm system around the 27th, it does appear to do so briefly on the 28th.
 
1300m said:
In ensemble land, that is honking the horn loudly for NC at this range. That's now 2 out of the last 3 runs of the GEFS with a mean over 3" at RDU. Granted some of that is probably mixed/sleet. Will be really curious to see if the EPS continues to tick upwards.
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Yeah will be interested to see how the eps trends over the next few days
 
Storm5 said:
Lol it plows the low into a 1049 high

Right....


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Yep the GFS utilizes a non-local mixing scheme which causes it to erode low-mid level temperature inversions too quickly and thus scour out cold air dams too quickly vs reality. The GFS also doesn't properly account for latent heating which matters wrt cad erosion in situations where there's freezing/melting hydrometeors inside the low level cold dome
 
Robert West said:
If we don't cash in here in SC in the next few weeks, we are doomed. Then we will be left saying "Maybe next year"
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Regardless, Feb is usually our time for big Winter storms in the Midlands.
 
Whatever happens between the 27th-28th isn't associated with the possible 29th-3rd threat. The possible 29th-3rd is a entire new system.
 
WeatherWatch said:
Whatever happens between the 27th-28th isn't associated with the possible 29th-3rd threat. The possible 29th-3rd is a entire new system.
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Omgd look at the ensembles it’s the same damn threat. Some of the members have a system the SAME system just early . It’s not a different system . There are timing differences but it’s all the same
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yep the GFS utilizes a non-local mixing scheme which causes it to erode low-mid level temperature inversions too quickly and thus scour out cold air dams too quickly vs reality. The GFS also doesn't properly account for latent heating which matters wrt cad erosion in situations where there's freezing/melting hydrometeors inside the low level cold dome
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It's also worth mentioning for future reference that while the NAM is better at handling CAD than the GFS because it has a local mixing scheme and higher horizontal resolution, its utilization of the Betts-Miller-Janic (BMJ) convective parameterizatiom scheme causes the model to look for the level of free convection (LFC) & mix a layer that's at least 200 hPa deep if convection and precipitation is present (as is often the case in CAD). In CAD events low level mixing layer depth is often no larger than 150 hPa (1000-850mb) if that. Thus, the NAM also scours out CAD way too quickly just for a different reason than the GFS.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's also worth mentioning for future reference that while the NAM is better at handling CAD than the GFS because it has a local mixing scheme and higher horizontal resolution, its utilization of the Betts-Miller-Janic (BMJ) convective parameterizatiom scheme causes the model to look for the level of free convection (LFC) & mix a layer that's at least 200 hPa deep if convection and precipitation is present (as is often the case in CAD). In CAD events low level mixing layer depth is often no larger than 150 hPa (1000-850mb) if that. Thus, the NAM also scours out CAD way too quickly just for a different reason than the GFS.
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So, with all these model biases, what keeps them for being fixed? I have seen changelogs of fixes, some minor, but then there are some things that are just permanent it seems. Are some of the issues part of the model's core that if munked with, they will break other main parts?

As a computer guy/programmer, I know sometimes fixing a bug will introduce lots of problems in the end, so I'd assume the same here?
 
1300m said:
In ensemble land, that is honking the horn loudly for NC at this range. That's now 2 out of the last 3 runs of the GEFS with a mean over 3" at RDU. Granted some of that is probably mixed/sleet. Will be really curious to see if the EPS continues to tick upwards.
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I agree. When MBY starts consistently showing over 2 inches on the mean, I start thinking it may be legit. It's kinda going back and forth on the GEFS a bit for MBY so I'd like to see it consitently uptick the next couple days leading up to the 7 day lead or so.
 
Shawn said:
So, with all these model biases, what keeps them for being fixed? I have seen changelogs of fixes, some minor, but then there are some things that are just permanent it seems. Are some of the issues part of the model's core that if munked with, they will break other main parts?

As a computer guy/programmer, I know sometimes fixing a bug will introduce lots of problems in the end, so I'd assume the same here?
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I imagine it’s much more difficult to fix than we think. So many variables. Once you change something it has a trickle down effect. I would at least think they could make one of the ensembles a “winter ensemble” that could focus on getting certain scenarios a little better than the op.
 
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