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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Storm5 said:
Yeah the cmc tried to crank out the same system but fails
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Probably has everything to do with that 1061 sitting right on top of it
 
WeatherWatch said:
Another strange thing, there's no way precip. is going to fall while there are 1030-1040 MSLP. That's around 30.42hg - 30.72hg. There's absolutely no way there's going to be precip. falling with that kind of air pressure.
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Not true at all. I have had CAD wedges and precip here with pressures in the 30.50 to 30.60" range many times. All about your setup.
 
bouncycorn said:
I'd say the signals are better for the upcoming 12.25-28 timeframe are better than they were for the big daddy (12.8-9) 7 days out.
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So are you saying there is a chance to have a bigger storm than we saw on Dec 8 that produced a foot of snow in some areas ?
 
Shawn said:
One would assume there was ip/zr to the South.
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I remember the January '88 storm well. I was in the 9th grade, and one of the coldest winters that I can recall. We practically missed an entire week of school due to that particular '88 storm. We had nearly 5" of snow here in Columbia proper, along with some sleet. It started out as sleet, then changed over to snow, then back to sleet, and finished off with snow.

If I can remember, I don't believe a Gulf low was actually producing this storm. Although, there was one in the Gulf, it wasn't technically fostering the storm. Maybe, someone can chime in on that scenario.

It was quite cold after the storm, and remnants of the snow remained for a nearly a couple weeks (of course, in shaded areas). It was the only winter storm of the season for many of us in the south.
 
1300m said:
That's actually a pretty strong signal for AR/TN/NC and I believe a pretty good uptick from earlier runs in coverage and amounts. I'm assuming there are a couple of big dogs and several cold and dry members?
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Looks skewed by three massive members . But yes there are some members that are cold and dry


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I think Christmas will probably be a flizzard at best

But after Christmas sure looks like big potential

Interestingly the CMC/NAM look more interesting Friday here again(the original storm that started the hype)... maybe that one ain't dead yet(NAM doesn't go out far enough but the CMC changes over to snow NW of DFW Friday Night)
 
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One thing to really take into consideration is how I said it seemed like a major storm around Christmas was steadily showing on the GFS. Well it was until recently, and now that's gone away.

How bad is the GFS? Wow.
 
Brent said:
I think Christmas will probably be a flizzard at best

I'm just having a hard time buying a big storm there.

Interestingly the CMC/NAM look more interesting Friday here again(the original storm that started the hype)... maybe that one ain't dead yet(NAM doesn't go out far enough but the CMC changes over to snow NW of DFW Friday Night)
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Why can't you buy a big storm there? What day 7 indicator or signal is not present? I certainly don't want models showing a blizzard imby at day 7.
 
Sleeping on a day 7 recurring threat and signal just because models don't show a snowstorm isn't the best of forecasting strategies imo.
 
ColaSnow said:
I remember the January '88 storm well. I was in the 9th grade, and one of the coldest winters that I can recall. We practically missed an entire week of school due to that particular '88 storm. We had nearly 5" of snow here in Columbia proper, along with some sleet. It started out as sleet, then changed over to snow, then back to sleet, and finished off with snow.

If I can remember, I don't believe a Gulf low was actually producing this storm. Although, there was one in the Gulf, it wasn't technically fostering the storm. Maybe, someone can chime in on that scenario.

It was quite cold after the storm, and remnants of the snow remained for a nearly a couple weeks (of course, in shaded areas). It was the only winter storm of the season for many of us in the south.
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It remained a very weak low in the GOM and never really strengthed at the SFC much...which was perfect as WAA aloft was tempered. KGSP had a greay writeup on this particular event explaining it with very detailed information.
 
Storm5 said:
It’s then active active through the rest of the run . Not an overwhelming signal for a system middle next week but some members do have a storm
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It has us below freezing for about 6 days in row though...brutal
 
How many times has the models lost a Winter system after repeatably showing a signal and then brought it back 4 days out, even 3. A bunch... No way we can write off anything, till Friday. Speaking of the 25th... After that is another opportunity. And another... And so on... Winter is just getting crunk. Hold on tight boys, it's gonna be a ride.
 
There's still precip there on Christmas but due to the -EPO event the northern shortwave which had been helping fuel the snow popping up and switch over southward is just drying out.

If the epo event is as it looks it might actually not be dry enough.
 
Euro is near 60 degrees here and raining when the GFS/CMC have a winter storm on 12/27

Well at least it has a storm... I guess? lol
 
I have crappy maps but it looks like a classic CAD event incoming at hour 240. Unless it cuts. Strong 1040'ish HP on top of Maine. She's a beaut
 
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