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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Euro sucks anyway! I'm going with a CMC/GFS blend! ;)
 
Honestly I don't know which model is most reliable after the last storm. The CMC did well and better than the Euro did, but we learned the GFS is utter garbage. However, I saw throughout hurricane season that any model can score, so let's root for the most consistent model I would say.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Honestly I don't know which model is most reliable after the last storm. The CMC did well and better than the Euro did, but we learned the GFS is utter garbage. However, I saw throughout hurricane season that any model can score, so let's root for the most consistent model I would say.
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The GFS can't score if it's a TC that'll emerge out of the monsoon trough or interact w/ the monsoon gyre, which was the overwhelming majority of tropical cyclones due to convective feedback issues at the sub-grid scale in the model
 
ForsythSnow said:
Honestly I don't know which model is most reliable after the last storm. The CMC did well and better than the Euro did, but we learned the GFS is utter garbage. However, I saw throughout hurricane season that any model can score, so let's root for the most consistent model I would say.
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NAM did fine last storm.
 
Cold rain through Xmas morning for most this run with embedded thunderstorms further southeast away from the cold side of the frontal boundary...
ecmwf_ptype_east_27.png
 
Storm5 said:
Much better
2e6cfafb3fce563988627b0858425ccc.jpg



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The torch line goes right through MBY. What happened to that HP in the northeast goofus was hinting at 3 days ago? I guess it's in Siberia now
 
The 12Z Euro is colder on Christmas in most of the SE vs the 0Z Euro due to the front being faster although not in ENC. It is also colder on 12/26-7.
 
Nice temp gradient and nice warmth here Christmas day
8d09e90033f375b625e673fac04a158f.jpg


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Webberweather53 said:
Cold rain through Xmas morning for most this run with embedded thunderstorms further southeast away from the cold side of the frontal boundary...
View attachment 2114
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Well, if it thunders in the winter, snow 10days later! So bring it! Storms Wednesday and Christmas Eve, double mojo!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Well, if it thunders in the winter, snow 10days later! So bring it! Storms Wednesday and Christmas Eve, double mojo!
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Haha we'll see, but of all old wives' tales and weather folklore the thunder in the winter >>> snow relationship has some modest merit because it implies we're in a stormy pattern, w/ a cyclone passing to our northwest, which also tends to drop snow to the NW of the cyclone, the new, fresh snow cover shifts the surface baroclinic zone further SE for subsequent storms and as the pattern evolves (assuming it remains stormy), the storm track mirrors the southeasterly progression of the snow cover extent progression, eventually yielding a favorable low track for wintry weather here.
 
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