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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

GaWx

GaWx

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No more dilly dallying, it is about time the December thread get created. In honor of, inspired by, and with permission from Mack, lover of analogs, here is the December thread and the first monthly I've ever done here. Model consensus is ecstatic about a pattern change starting around 12/7 to give the SE and much of the E US a dreamy cold (likely ending the nearly 2 year long warmer than normal months streak at KSAV) and potentially wintry pattern. QBO/ENSO/Nov AO analogs are suggesting a cold to possibly very cold December once past the first week. The top two Dec analogs I found were 1962 and 2000, with 2000 in first place.

Analogs have struggled in recent years as Mack loves to remind me and tease me about and for good reason. Now it is time for analogs to become relevant again. Let's do this!
 
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Certainly looks good at this point in time. Let's get this winter started. I really like the idea of southern sliders that have been popping up on the GFS in the extended. One things for certain, if we keep the blocking that has been modeled, then it will get cold.
 
Last 5 EPS runs centered on 12z December 7th... We're probably not going to see wintry weather right away even in an amazing pattern like this, need to sacrifice a few big storms when the pattern initially turns cold and stormy to lay down a deep snow cover over the northern tier of the nation to aid in refrigerating the cold air masses that infiltrate the southern US... This process of putting down a deep snow cover (even in a good pattern) to "lock in" incoming Cp air masses can take a week and a half to 2 weeks or so to complete. Hence we're still a very long ways off from glory (if at all). I'm okay with this given that a week and a half to 2 weeks from December 7th-8th puts us awfully close to Christmas...
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i would really like to see most december torch... cause i like to use 84 85 winter as a good analog... to me that was really the last true harsh brutal winter i can remember... it was balls to wall cold from january to end february nearly cold... got down to minus 10 in mid janiary memphis area... also we recieved nearly 40 inches of snow that winter ungodly... i was nearly sick of snow to be honest that winter
 
Webberweather53 said:
Last 5 EPS runs centered on 12z December 7th... We're probably not going to see wintry weather right away even in an amazing pattern like this, need to sacrifice a few big storms when the pattern initially turns cold and stormy to lay down a deep snow cover over the northern tier of the nation to aid in refrigerating the cold air masses that infiltrate the southern US... This process of putting down a deep snow cover (even in a good pattern) to "lock in" incoming Cp air masses can take a week and a half to 2 weeks or so to complete. Hence we're still a very long ways off from glory (if at all).
View attachment 1583
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Living on the edge of glory. Is there really any other way in the SE


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tennessee storm said:
i would really like to see most december torch... cause i like to use 84 85 winter as a good analog... to me that was really the last true harsh brutal winter i can remember... it was balls to wall cold from january to end february nearly cold... got down to minus 10 in mid janiary memphis area... also we recieved nearly 40 inches of snow that winter ungodly... i was nearly sick of snow to be honest that winter
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We've torched or been above-well above normal in every December since 2010, I think it's time for a change...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Last night's 0z EPS run was the best looking one yet...
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webber havent looked that far out yet myself... but you think we can score on couple severe events during this pattern change... like you saying we have to sacrafice some big storms to get there... hoping we could be on the severe side of things especially western part of the south midsouth area
 
tennessee storm said:
webber havent looked that far out yet myself... but you think we can score on couple severe events during this pattern change... like you saying we have to sacrafice some big storms to get there... hoping we could be on the severe side of things especially western part of the south midsouth area
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It's certainly possible to see some severe w/ the initial wave of cold that presses into the southern US, but the pattern doesn't scream big, multi-day outbreak w/ a huge trough immediately parking itself over the eastern US. If the Cp airmass was initially dumped into the Rockies and Western US and bled eastward instead of the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest, as it likely will in this case, it would definitely change the game...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Last 5 EPS runs centered on 12z December 7th... We're probably not going to see wintry weather right away even in an amazing pattern like this, need to sacrifice a few big storms when the pattern initially turns cold and stormy to lay down a deep snow cover over the northern tier of the nation to aid in refrigerating the cold air masses that infiltrate the southern US... This process of putting down a deep snow cover (even in a good pattern) to "lock in" incoming Cp air masses can take a week and a half to 2 weeks or so to complete. Hence we're still a very long ways off from glory (if at all). I'm okay with this given that a week and a half to 2 weeks from December 7th-8th puts us awfully close to Christmas...
View attachment 1583
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I'm impressed with how much stronger the Greenland block gets with each EPS run for this point in forecast time
 
Severe weather is possible with a few systems before the pattern change, especially west of the APPS, Plains and the upper Plains. After the pattern change, the storm tracks will be different. Some will cut, but I think most systems will remain in the southern stream for the most part, due to the lower heights making their way deeper down south.

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Latest telles all on our side going into December. Can't recall the last time all 3 where on our side for our region. +PNA/-AO/-NAO is seen on GFS ensembles and the EPS.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml
cda65acda44bb615afd53ca04d69808a.gif


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GaWx said:
No more dilly dallying, it is about time the December thread get created. In honor of, inspired by, and with permission from Mack, lover of analogs, here is the December thread and the first monthly I've ever done here. Model consensus is ecstatic about a pattern change starting around 12/7 to give the SE and much of the E US a dreamy cold (likely ending the nearly 2 year long warmer than normal months streak at KSAV) and potentially wintry pattern. QBO/ENSO/Nov AO analogs are suggesting a cold to possibly very cold December once past the first week. The top two Dec analogs I found were 1962 and 2000, with 2000 in first place.

Analogs have struggled in recent years as Mack loves to remind me and tease me about and for good reason. Now it is time for analogs to become relevant again. Let's do this!
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Awesome! Larry bringing the mojo.... now will December be this

96f0e1d4be9bc5b90ed71f2ff386b134.gif


Or this



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Check out this post from
netweather.tv, a U.K. weather forum, which shows they're also getting very excited about the upcoming Greenland block (also note within this post a quote of a Twitter post done by Ed Vallee of Maine, which refers to a "sexy look" from yesterday's 0Z EPS for 12/10...Is that Storm5/Charlie lol?)

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/top...rly-forecasts/?do=findComment&comment=3655920

Keep in mind that a cold Europe often correlates to a cold E US. Reading more of their posts, they think 1962 is perhaps the best analog. See this post from yesterday, which is just one example of a number about 1962:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/top...rly-forecasts/?do=findComment&comment=3655778

Aside: Within this U.K. forum, someone actually refers to the Euro model as "king" lmao:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/top...ussion-010917/?do=findComment&comment=3656219
 
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Despite 1962 and 2000 being the best QBO/ENSO matches I could find back to 1948, the main reason I have 2000 a little ahead of 1962 for best analog is that 2000 was weak La Niña vs 1962 being cold neutral. Being that we're already at -1.1 on the weeklies, we're most likely going to end up with weak to moderate La Niña ONIwise (trimonthly peak):

QBO:
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

ONI ENSO:

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

One has to wonder **IF** and how the current relatively weak and getting weaker sun (as per sunspots/solar flux) would have a nontrivial impact as we're threatening to go triple digits for spotless days in 2017 and 2018 promises to be even much quieter as we appear to be headed toward a grand solar minimum like Dalton of 200 years ago and possibly even to something even quieter. That could actually give the edge back to 1962, which was much quieter than 2000 (though still not nearly as quiet as it is now), but solar's impact on individual winters in the E US is iffy/needs more research:

http://www.sidc.be/silso/monthlyssnplot

http://southernwx.com/community/threads/historic-solar-cycle-minimum-coming.105/page-2

Edit:
MJO: I like where the Euro appears to have it going after 12/9, left side (colder phases on average) and weak:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

Note that this MJO would be fairly similar to but a weaker version of Dec. of 2000 (in blue):

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/archive/MJO_phase/200010.phase.90days.gif
 
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I can see why they're using '62-'63 as an analog. This is from Dec-Feb 1963. Looks very similar of what we have been seeing on the models at H5.
3269d17115a87a2afeaeb65ec443ddc0.jpg


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Further to what StoneMtnWx posted about the three main GEFS forecasted indices, I just noticed that today's 0Z GEFS based PNA forecast looks the best yet out in the day 10-14 forecast period with most members approaching an impressive +1 on 12/10 (+1 is pretty impressive for the PNA), which would be at or near the best looking PNA in months:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

This combined with the GEFS suggestion on 12/10 of a near -1 NAO, a near -3 AO, and an MJO quite possibly then approaching the left side of the circle (cold phases) has got to get the SE wx weenie quite excited for good potential for a solid cold pattern coming up! Just look at the history of how cold the SE typically has gotten on specific days with that combo of these indices if you're not already convinced of the potential.
 
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