Southern Track
Member
The MJO forecast this morning seems a little more progressive and not as bound up in phase 6 in the long term.
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Pattern December Dud đź‘€
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Sunday afternoon will probably be perfect for golf in our area. Mid 60s and sunnny. The rest of the warm up looks wet
I am admittedly a novice at the MJO graphs - I imagine the wider turn is what you want, right? You dont want it hugging the circle of death.
jeremyt
Member
Probably gonna go to Stonebridge or Eagle Chase! Sucking during the warmer days is less miserable than sucking and freezing!
Southern Track
Member
From what I know, the COD is better than having a strong amplitude in the warm phases, but I will let the experts weigh in on that.
I should've clarified - the wider turn through the cold areas for us.
Yeah it seems like the farther away from the COD, the stronger the pulse and more influential it is on the pattern. Of course, we caveat with the "it's just one piece of the puzzle" disclaimer.
iGRXY
Member
COD in my opinion is where you tend to want to live or at least low amp. The less variables you have to influence the atmosphere the better. ENSO state neutral, MJO in the COD, etc ..
Wider turn, I assume, also means longer period of time in the given phase.
SnowNiner
Member
The EPS looks like it maaaaayyyy want to get a western ridge going with a trough in the east? You have to really squint though. The N pacific low needs to back up some...we'll see.
I started this season VERY pessimistic about cold/snow chances (still leaning that way hard). But we've had a solid 1-2 weeks of cool/cold air and a novelty snowy clipper for some, so considering it's December, that ain't bad. I'll take a few weeks of warm. Hopefully Webb's +TNH, TMNT, NSYNC, ACC, SEC will bring back some high latitude blocking in January.
NCSNOW
Member
Latest from BAMWX;
Jan 14 vs latest CFSv2 500mb forecast into Jan 2025. For the record the ECM/CMC etc all have very similar looks here. A lot to watch! Check back!
6:06 AM · Dec 6, 2024
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4,266
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Jan 14 vs latest CFSv2 500mb forecast into Jan 2025. For the record the ECM/CMC etc all have very similar looks here. A lot to watch! Check back!
6:06 AM · Dec 6, 2024
·
4,266
Views
You want it out of 4-5-6. That's by far and away the biggest thing. Especially 5. How I frigging hate 5. You want to predict warm spells a month in advance? That's your secret formula. I've done it many times and people are amazed. Why can't snow be that easy?
Yeah, 7-8-1 is our money zone, right?
19 here in Blowing Rock at 11:15! Happy December!
Canadian was really close at 0z as well.
Depends on the month. January yes you want 7/8
Yes. Both @Webberweather53 and I have individually found that January phase 7 (and 8 not far behind) is as close to a MJO money phase as we have for getting frozen precipitation in NC. These plots done by Allan Huffman are a good reference as well to see how it varies by month and by strength.
P.S. and looking at the H5 composite of phase 7 January, it's no great mystery why that is.
With me being in Boston next week, I hope you find out.