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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

Brent said:
19 degrees!

Remember it was 80+ for 5 days
Click to expand...

Just 11 days ago, the EPS mean had your low this morning of ~43! It had Mack at 28, Nashville at 42, Birmingham at 47, ATL at 45, SAV at 48, CAE/AUG at 43, GSP/Charlotte/FAY at 40, and RDU at 39.

How far off were these on the 12/19 12Z EPS?

TUL +22 (based on official low of 21)
Mack +16
Nashville +17
Birmingham +23
ATL +19
SAV +13
AUG +12
CAE +15
GSP +12
Charlotte +13
FAY +10
RDU +11

IMG_6394.png
 
GaWx said:
One more post about the above. Here’s s better visual comparison between the near actuals per the 6Z EPS 6 hour map on top and the EPS forecast from 11 days ago (bottom map):

Actuals:
View attachment 180532

EPS forecast from 11 days ago:
View attachment 180533
Click to expand...
What did GFS/AI etc look like for today 11 days ago? Was anyone right?

If everyone was too warm… here’s hoping they’re right about the precip in 10 days and way off with temps again
 
xshare said:
What did GFS/AI etc look like for today 11 days ago? Was anyone right?

If everyone was too warm… here’s hoping they’re right about the precip in 10 days and way off with temps again
Click to expand...

GEFS was also way too warm, but I didn’t save the map. It’s safe to say that model consensus was way too warm.
 
GaWx said:
I’ve been quite curious about what phases the MJO would be in during the heart of the widespread historic US warmth of late Dec, Dec 23-27. We needed to wait due to several days of reporting lag. Would any of it be in the typically chilly in the E 1/2 of the US phase 8?

Well, now we have the answer for the first 3 days, Dec 23-25: not surprisingly, none of those first 3 days were in phase 8. It turns out that Dec 23-4 were in very weak phase 7 while Dec 25 was in very weak phase 6, which I consider intuitive:


2025 12 23 -0.28945175 0.37228486 7 0.47157007 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind
2025 12 24 -0.12800699 0.45807526 7 0.47562456 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind
2025 12 25 0.16766728 0.36077648 6 0.39783412 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind

View attachment 180158

Based on a combo of the above diagram and a related adjustment to the model prog consensus, I’m predicting that Dec 26th will be in very weak 4 and Dec 27th will be in either weak 3 or weak 2.

Will we get back into phase 8 before the end of Dec? The GEFS, JMA, and CFS with my adjustments suggest likely not whereas the adjusted Euro suggests there’s a chance for at least one day of weak 8 then.

Will we get back into phase 8 in early Jan? As of now there’s a moderate chance of mainly a weak 8, but that’s all I can say right now due to model disagreement and it being too far out for a confident prediction.
Click to expand...

Followup: The full torch period MJO is now in as I had to wait for the reporting lag. It turns out that the MJO during the heart of the torch (12/23-27) wasn’t in a typically cold track after all. Instead of a typically cold in Dec counterclockwise track of 8-1-2 of moderate to weak amp (including near or inside circle left side), it tracked clockwise weak 7-6-4-3, an unusual Dec track that one would not associate with cold as it kind of went in reverse and in typically not cold phases even though they were weak:

IMG_6628.gif

2025 12 23 -0.28945175 0.37228486 7 0.47157007 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind

2025 12 24 -0.12800699 0.45807526 7 0.47562456 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind

2025 12 25 0.16766728 0.36077648 6 0.39783412 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind

2025 12 26 0.17544751 -6.13679737E-02 4 0.18587054 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind

2025 12 27 4.42237742E-02 -0.35203809 3 0.35480496
 
I’m calculating that the Dec NAO will come in near -1, easily the most negative Dec since 2010. This is the first moderate to strong Dec -NAO during active Dec sunspots since 2002, when sunspots were 135. I’m estimating Dec of 2025 SSN to be 120.
 
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