Only 73.2 today. #winning
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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
wow
Member
Currently in the hot tub. Might as well... Didn't take long at all to heat up.
Back door front tomorrow.. might not even break 50.
Back door front tomorrow.. might not even break 50.
Which avg Conus Christmas highs were warmer, 2021 or 2025?
1. Based on geographic area, I’d say 2025. Why? Because most of the W 1/2 including most of the Plains states as well as MO and much of TX were warmer in addition to much of the SE. The NE to Ohio Valley to much of Midwest and much of the Midsouth was cooler.
2. In terms of population weighted highs (energy usage indicator), it’s a tougher call. I lean toward 2021 being net warmer because of the high population of the NE to Ohio Valley to Midwest.
2021 forecasted highs:
2025 3:20PM EST temperatures:
1. Based on geographic area, I’d say 2025. Why? Because most of the W 1/2 including most of the Plains states as well as MO and much of TX were warmer in addition to much of the SE. The NE to Ohio Valley to much of Midwest and much of the Midsouth was cooler.
2. In terms of population weighted highs (energy usage indicator), it’s a tougher call. I lean toward 2021 being net warmer because of the high population of the NE to Ohio Valley to Midwest.
2021 forecasted highs:
2025 3:20PM EST temperatures:
BrickTamland
Member
Going to be a roller coaster ride here the next few days. Going from 70 today to 40s tomorrow, back up to 60s, down to 50s, up to 60s and then 40s again
Only managed 61 today, not too bad considering the torches throughout most of the region. Felt nice, almost perfect temp wise
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Super cool to see this dual mid-level frontogen structure on the models for this storm in the NE US.
Makes sense to me why this happening. You have 2 areas of heavier snowfall rates favored here with this one. One to the south likely just north of NYC on the leading edge of the warm nose aloft, where melting snow partially offsets the advancing warm advection. The other area is to the north over New England where the sloped warm advection aloft intersects the snow growth zone.
For most of us, even our best warm advection storms are typically stuck in the more southern regime where we're riding the edge of the warm nose and feeding off the enhanced FGEN from it. Oftentimes, there's not enough deep-layer cold air down here for warm advection to properly intersect the snow growth zone.
In any case, thought this was a cool thing to share.
Makes sense to me why this happening. You have 2 areas of heavier snowfall rates favored here with this one. One to the south likely just north of NYC on the leading edge of the warm nose aloft, where melting snow partially offsets the advancing warm advection. The other area is to the north over New England where the sloped warm advection aloft intersects the snow growth zone.
For most of us, even our best warm advection storms are typically stuck in the more southern regime where we're riding the edge of the warm nose and feeding off the enhanced FGEN from it. Oftentimes, there's not enough deep-layer cold air down here for warm advection to properly intersect the snow growth zone.
In any case, thought this was a cool thing to share.
This torch ain't torching right or something.
Clouds are here and they are slate gray solid. 55/51. CAMs want to erode it some by day’s end and go for low 60s
Bigedd09
Member
It was 76 yesterday
The best ones sneak up 2-3 days out
Shaggy
Member
Up here in Delaware we are running several degrees behind forecast. We were suppose to hit 39 today and we are stuck at 33. Gives me hope i see some frozen here after all
Folks, please wish me luck as I’m about to take a walk smack dab in the middle of a torch! It’s now 75.2 here. I’m armed with my shorts, short sleeve shirt, and ice water. I think I’ll be able to handle the intense heat ok.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
The last 4 days have been 73, 78, 77, 75 here !
I can report a blistering 48 degrees during this torch.
Shaggy
Member
Heaviest precip staying well north of me here in Delaware but did manage 20 minutes of snow and sleet alittle while ago
iGRXY
Member
Held at 54 and clouds all day
Makeitsnow
Member
Currently 65 at midnight..ridiculous
Brent
Member
Day 4 of record highs here and day 5 may break the all time high for December(1 degree off on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day)
And then Monday morning may have wind chills in the single digits
And then Monday morning may have wind chills in the single digits
Congratulations to these stations on their warmest "Christmas week" (12/20-12/26) by avg max temp on record --
-KGSP: 1st warmest by max (64.3, +10.8), T-2nd warmest by mean (51.6, +8.0)
-KATL: 1st warmest by max (67.4, +12.6), 2nd warmest by mean (58.1, +12.0)
-KTRI (Bristol, TN): 1st warmest by max (62.9, +14.9), 3rd warmest by mean (49.1, +11.0)
-KCHA: 1st warmest by max (66.1, +14.4), 3rd warmest by mean (55.3, +12.2)
-KMCN: 1st warmest by max (72.9, +12.9), 4th warmest by mean (56.7, +8.2)
-KMOB: 1st warmest by max (75, +12.7), 6th warmest by mean (63.4, +11.2)
some stations I checked that did not have a 1st or T-1st in either category but did have top 3 in both: KBHM, KAVL, KHSV
-KGSP: 1st warmest by max (64.3, +10.8), T-2nd warmest by mean (51.6, +8.0)
-KATL: 1st warmest by max (67.4, +12.6), 2nd warmest by mean (58.1, +12.0)
-KTRI (Bristol, TN): 1st warmest by max (62.9, +14.9), 3rd warmest by mean (49.1, +11.0)
-KCHA: 1st warmest by max (66.1, +14.4), 3rd warmest by mean (55.3, +12.2)
-KMCN: 1st warmest by max (72.9, +12.9), 4th warmest by mean (56.7, +8.2)
-KMOB: 1st warmest by max (75, +12.7), 6th warmest by mean (63.4, +11.2)
some stations I checked that did not have a 1st or T-1st in either category but did have top 3 in both: KBHM, KAVL, KHSV
I like it when we get so late in a month where the current month thread dies because all the interesting stuff is in next month
Anyways, today feels the warmest of any day yet to me for some reason. 68 already. Our last chance to match the 77 of Christmas Eve before we wedge tomorrow and front Monday
Anyways, today feels the warmest of any day yet to me for some reason. 68 already. Our last chance to match the 77 of Christmas Eve before we wedge tomorrow and front Monday
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Already 71 at 11:15 am.
JP152
Member
42.3 here rn. 46 today, 63 tomorrow with t-storms, then 16 tomorrow night with snow showers and wind chill below zero Monday am.
CAD is always interesting to experience. I went skiing at Winterplace on Tuesday. The weather was pretty crappy for skiing (upper 40s and it had rained earlier in the day), but it was still a lot of fun since it wasn’t busy. On the way back, it warmed up to about 60 in southwest VA, but then once I came off the mountains down into Mt Airy it dropped from about 60 in Galax to 46 in Mt Airy!
CHA maxed at 78 today, tying the all-time record for December.
Makeitsnow
Member
Low was 59...high was 79. If it wasnt Dec 27th it would have felt great instead the calendar made it awful
Brent
Member
Remember when we had winter weather twice in the first 3 days of the month. Haha
Oh it was in the 40s at sunrise too much better than the last couple days!
Oh it was in the 40s at sunrise too much better than the last couple days!
JP152
Member
Good Lord!. That's sort of depressing.
. 46/40 here today.
Brent
Member
Good Lord!. That's sort of depressing.
It was actually a lot cooler this morning but all the dry air did was warm up even more haha
It had been very humid over Christmas
JP152
Member
It doesn't seem right for this time of year, but it probably did feel nice.
Brent
Member
Yeah it just makes me wonder how badly we're gonna pay for it haha
Because we're going to
JP152
Member
I'm ready for more snow.
Brent
Member
Right heck I just wanna see some moisture back.... How dry it's been really should be the bigger story
I’ve been quite curious about what phases the MJO would be in during the heart of the widespread historic US warmth of late Dec, Dec 23-27. We needed to wait due to several days of reporting lag. Would any of it be in the typically chilly in the E 1/2 of the US phase 8?
Well, now we have the answer for the first 3 days, Dec 23-25: not surprisingly, none of those first 3 days were in phase 8. It turns out that Dec 23-4 were in very weak phase 7 while Dec 25 was in very weak phase 6, which I consider intuitive:
2025 12 23 -0.28945175 0.37228486 7 0.47157007 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind
2025 12 24 -0.12800699 0.45807526 7 0.47562456 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind
2025 12 25 0.16766728 0.36077648 6 0.39783412 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind
Based on a combo of the above diagram and a related adjustment to the model prog consensus, I’m predicting that Dec 26th will be in very weak 4 and Dec 27th will be in either weak 3 or weak 2.
Will we get back into phase 8 before the end of Dec? The GEFS, JMA, and CFS with my adjustments suggest likely not whereas the adjusted Euro suggests there’s a chance for at least one day of weak 8 then.
Will we get back into phase 8 in early Jan? As of now there’s a moderate chance of mainly a weak 8, but that’s all I can say right now due to model disagreement and it being too far out for a confident prediction.
Well, now we have the answer for the first 3 days, Dec 23-25: not surprisingly, none of those first 3 days were in phase 8. It turns out that Dec 23-4 were in very weak phase 7 while Dec 25 was in very weak phase 6, which I consider intuitive:
2025 12 23 -0.28945175 0.37228486 7 0.47157007 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind
2025 12 24 -0.12800699 0.45807526 7 0.47562456 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind
2025 12 25 0.16766728 0.36077648 6 0.39783412 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind
Based on a combo of the above diagram and a related adjustment to the model prog consensus, I’m predicting that Dec 26th will be in very weak 4 and Dec 27th will be in either weak 3 or weak 2.
Will we get back into phase 8 before the end of Dec? The GEFS, JMA, and CFS with my adjustments suggest likely not whereas the adjusted Euro suggests there’s a chance for at least one day of weak 8 then.
Will we get back into phase 8 in early Jan? As of now there’s a moderate chance of mainly a weak 8, but that’s all I can say right now due to model disagreement and it being too far out for a confident prediction.
wedged as wedge can wedge during such a warm pattern. 54 at 5:30a now 50/48 with 1.50 vis and mist
down to 46/46 with heavy mist and fog
Currently 44 with drizzle and fog in Charlotte. Seattle Seahawks should be right at home in today's game.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
70 here as of 12:15pm. That makes 6 straight days of 70+
iGRXY
Member
45 with heavy mist and fog here as well.