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I found a writeup describing Atlanta's experiences Sep. 1918-Feb 1919 during the Spanish Flu epidemic, which included ~2 1/2 weeks of widespread closures as well as social distancing in October. Schools were closed about 3.5 weeks. The city health officer was Dr. J. P. Kennedy:

"Knowing what had occurred in cities such as Boston, he decided not to wait for a more serious outbreak. At a short afternoon meeting on October 7, Kennedy and the city Board of Health voted to close all schools, libraries, theaters, movie houses, dance halls, churches, and other places of public amusement, and ordered street cars to keep their windows wide open except when raining. Just in case there was any question as to the authority of the Board to issue such an order, the city council followed suit with a resolution to the same effect, closing public places for a period of two months or until the epidemic had passed. Violation of the closure order came with a hefty $200 fine. Whether because of the tone set by the Board of Health and the city council or because of a sense of civic duty, Atlanta’s business interests were models of cooperation."

By late October, the pressure to reopen was strong enough to convince leaders to reopen. Schools apparently opened back about a week later (in early November).

The 1st wave, in fall 1918, ended up not too bad there.

The 2nd wave, which started around Thanksgiving, was worse:

"Still, neither Kennedy nor the Public Safety Committee believed the epidemic severe enough to take further action. 'The influenza situation in Atlanta is up to the people themselves,' the Committee declared. In the opinion of Kennedy, closing public places again would be 'useless.'"

"Kennedy maintained this position throughout the rest of the winter, even as the epidemic grew in strength. By the end of January 1919, the situation had grown severe enough that the Fulton County Medical Society invited members of the state, county, and local health boards as well as military medical officers to confer about what could be done to bring epidemic to an end once and for all. A greater proportion of influenza cases were developing pneumonia than had been the case in the last days of 1918, resulting in an increased number of deaths."

"In the end, however, the conferees decided the best course of action was to isolate cases, quarantine households, and to impress upon the public the need to practice proper cough etiquette and to avoid crowds. The committee also suggested that serious cases of influenza and pneumonia not be transferred to hospitals so that they not infect other patients."

"Atlanta’s death rate remained elevated throughout the rest of February. It was not until mid-March that Kennedy could report that the city’s death rate appeared to be returning to normal and that Atlanta’s second wave of influenza had ended."

"According to the figures reported to the Census Bureau, Atlanta lost a total of 829 residents to the epidemic through the end of February 1919."
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So, the 2nd wave of 1918 started about a month after business reopenings and 3 weeks after school reopenings. Was the 2nd wave largely tied to and worse due to these reopenings? What do y'all think?

It looks like Atlanta is sort of doing a replay of October-Nov of 1918 with the first epidemic wave followed by reopenings. Will Atlanta have a worse 2nd wave later this year? Or will it be much different and be tame? Of course, the 1st wave is not yet done. Also, we're headed into summer vs being late into autumn in 1918.


Link:
https://www.influenzaarchive.org/cities/city-atlanta.html#
 
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GaWx said:
I found a writeup describing Atlanta's experiences Sep. 1918-Feb 1919 during the Spanish Flu epidemic, which included ~2 1/2 weeks of widespread closures as well as social distancing in October. Schools were closed about 3.5 weeks. The city health officer was Dr. J. P. Kennedy:

"Knowing what had occurred in cities such as Boston, he decided not to wait for a more serious outbreak. At a short afternoon meeting on October 7, Kennedy and the city Board of Health voted to close all schools, libraries, theaters, movie houses, dance halls, churches, and other places of public amusement, and ordered street cars to keep their windows wide open except when raining. Just in case there was any question as to the authority of the Board to issue such an order, the city council followed suit with a resolution to the same effect, closing public places for a period of two months or until the epidemic had passed. Violation of the closure order came with a hefty $200 fine. Whether because of the tone set by the Board of Health and the city council or because of a sense of civic duty, Atlanta’s business interests were models of cooperation."

By late October, the pressure to reopen was strong enough to convince leaders to reopen. Schools apparently opened back about a week later (in early November).

The 1st wave, in fall 1918, ended up not too bad there.

The 2nd wave, which started around Thanksgiving, was worse:

"Still, neither Kennedy nor the Public Safety Committee believed the epidemic severe enough to take further action. 'The influenza situation in Atlanta is up to the people themselves,' the Committee declared. In the opinion of Kennedy, closing public places again would be 'useless.'"

"Kennedy maintained this position throughout the rest of the winter, even as the epidemic grew in strength. By the end of January 1919, the situation had grown severe enough that the Fulton County Medical Society invited members of the state, county, and local health boards as well as military medical officers to confer about what could be done to bring epidemic to an end once and for all. A greater proportion of influenza cases were developing pneumonia than had been the case in the last days of 1918, resulting in an increased number of deaths."

"In the end, however, the conferees decided the best course of action was to isolate cases, quarantine households, and to impress upon the public the need to practice proper cough etiquette and to avoid crowds. The committee also suggested that serious cases of influenza and pneumonia not be transferred to hospitals so that they not infect other patients."

"Atlanta’s death rate remained elevated throughout the rest of February. It was not until mid-March that Kennedy could report that the city’s death rate appeared to be returning to normal and that Atlanta’s second wave of influenza had ended."

"According to the figures reported to the Census Bureau, Atlanta lost a total of 829 residents to the epidemic through the end of February 1919."
----------------------------------------------------------------------

So, the 2nd wave of 1918 started about a month after business reopenings and 3 weeks after school reopenings. Was the 2nd wave largely tied to and worse due to these reopenings? What do y'all think?

It looks like Atlanta is sort of doing a replay of October-Nov of 1918 with the first epidemic wave followed by reopenings. Will Atlanta have a worse 2nd wave later this year? Or will it be much different and be tame? Of course, the 1st wave is not yet done. Also, we're headed into summer vs being late into autumn in 1918.


Link:
https://www.influenzaarchive.org/cities/city-atlanta.html#
Click to expand...

The mortality rate for the Spanish flu is much higher in the younger age groups than covid19, that's one big difference. I think if we have the same age distribution with covid19 as we did with Spanish flu there is no way we would be opening things back up and thinking of sending children to school in the fall.

W_curve.png
COVID-19-by-Age.png
 
KyloG said:
The mortality rate for the Spanish flu is much higher in the younger age groups than covid19, that's one big difference. I think if we have the same age distribution with covid19 as we did with Spanish flu there is no way we would be opening things back up and thinking of sending children to school in the fall.

View attachment 41580
View attachment 41581
Click to expand...
I'm trying to understand the graphs you posted... for the Spanish flu, is that deaths per 10,000? 100,000? 1,000,000?
Also the dashed 1911-1917 line, is that the normal death rate per X number of population?

For COVID is that the death rate per percentage of people infected?
 
ghost1 said:
I'm trying to understand the graphs you posted... for the Spanish flu, is that deaths per 10,000? 100,000? 1,000,000?
Also the dashed 1911-1917 line, is that the normal death rate per X number of population?

For COVID is that the death rate per percentage of people infected?
Click to expand...

per 100k and the dashed line is the comparison to the flu

Yes to the COVID-19 question...% per infected.

en.m.wikipedia.org

Spanish flu - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org
 
I didn't realize the morbidity rate for infants and the very young was still so high back then. Essentially two yr olds died at the same rate 80 yr olds did.
 
Multiple corona closures for state parks today. Sewer failures occurring at Hanging Rock State Park.
 
LithiaWx said:
Also Zoo Atlanta opened yesterday. I took the family to visit. It was a beautiful day. Btw I’ve been getting shamed at the other politics board for going to dinner and visiting the zoo. Those folks are crazy.
Click to expand...

Not sure how they're going to distance but hey it is something to do. That is a great place for children to go and at least y'all think you've had it.

That makes me wonder. There is one person elsewhere claiming that a lot of Atlanta is still mostly closed up. Is that actually the case haha? I'm coming through next week (it is very unlikely we will stop however) and I wonder if we actually will see holiday traffic when we do go.

Edit: If it's mostly closed up, from some of y'all and other places, I know a lot of people are ignoring that anyway.
 
ghost1 said:
I didn't realize the morbidity rate for infants and the very young was still so high back then. Essentially two yr olds died at the same rate 80 yr olds did.
Click to expand...
When comparing the death rates or amount of deaths from the Spanish Flu to Covid, they are pretty much meaningless. Consider the impact of these factors when looking at them:
1. Much less population then in 1917
2. Travel was multitudes less than we have now
3. MUCH fewer Doctors and Hospitals per capita than today.
4. Very few tested medicines for their efficacy then
5. Little method of communication to the populace than today
6. Much more understanding of disease and especially treatments than back then
7. We were just emerging from a massive war then when nutrition was severally diminished in quality and quantity
8. Sanitation and hygine practices were either non existant then or poorly understood
 
MichaelJ said:
When comparing the death rates or amount of deaths from the Spanish Flu to Covid, they are pretty much meaningless. Consider the impact of these factors when looking at them:
1. Much less population then in 1917
2. Travel was multitudes less than we have now
3. MUCH fewer Doctors and Hospitals per capita than today.
4. Very few tested medicines for their efficacy then
5. Little method of communication to the populace than today
6. Much more understanding of disease and especially treatments than back then
7. We were just emerging from a massive war then when nutrition was severally diminished in quality and quantity
8. Sanitation and hygine practices were either non existant then or poorly understood
Click to expand...

5. Yeah, almost entirely from newspapers. Typically 12-24 hours between editions unless a special “extra” edition (“extra, extra, read all about it”) were put out.
The good thing back then was the lack of fake, misleading, or biased news from the internet and TV.

8. Sanitation/hygiene practices were far from nonexistent in 1918. There already was, for example, “cough etiquette” and the knowledge that gathering together was risky. The science by then was more advanced than you think imo. Masks were in use in many cases. Also, it was already well known then that being outside in fresh air was generally safer than being inside, including temporary outside hospitals.
 
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GeorgiaGirl said:
Not sure how they're going to distance but hey it is something to do. That is a great place for children to go and at least y'all think you've had it.

That makes me wonder. There is one person elsewhere claiming that a lot of Atlanta is still mostly closed up. Is that actually the case haha? I'm coming through next week (it is very unlikely we will stop however) and I wonder if we actually will see holiday traffic when we do go.

Edit: If it's mostly closed up, from some of y'all and other places, I know a lot of people are ignoring that anyway.
Click to expand...

everything was well done by Zoo Atlanta. One way path through the park. Hand sanitizer stations EVERYWHERE. All buildings with doors were closed (reptile houses, bird aviary, etc) everything was taped off showing where people should stand to avoid proximity to others. It was amazingly well done.

Atlanta is not mainly shutdown. Some restaurants are still takeout only but there are things open.
 
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LithiaWx said:
everything was well done by Zoo Atlanta. One way path through the park. Hand sanitizer stations EVERYWHERE. All buildings with doors were closed (reptile houses, bird aviary, etc) everything was taped off showing where people should stand to avoid proximity to others. It was amazingly well done.

Atlanta is not mainly shutdown. Some restaurants are still takeout only but there are things open.
Click to expand...

I think most SAV area dine in are still closed though I'm not sure. If I were going to dine in at a restaurant anytime soon (which I'm not, especially since my bro is high risk), I'd much prefer to sit outdoors assuming it were no more crowded than inside since the same air wouldn't be recirculating nearly as much. Also, I might prefer there be a bit of a breeze to thin out any potential germs better though that could backfire, too.,,,what if someone were to sneeze and the bulk of that sneezed air were to unluckily blow right into someone, say, 15 feet away by a gust of wind?

I'm going to stick to pay/tip ahead curbside pickup for quite awhile.
 
Still major meat shortages here at Foodlion. May try bigger store in Winston-Salem for steak, chicken and beef. Yadkinville has nothing but one Food-Lion and dollar general.
 
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