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Misc Cold Season Complaining

LukeBarrette said:
Big trough not looking as good…
shocker
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Had some crappy runs overnight yeh, but the mornings runs are coming in better.

I'll say that I am excited to see how the Euro AI model does this Winter. It has done very well with some tropical system this season. It nailed future Sara with no getting it going (still could). That being said, the 06z run shows a big shift this time next week about.
ecmwf-aifs-all-conus-z500_anom-2276800.pngecmwf-aifs-all-conus-t2m_f_anom-2276800.png
 
Mitch West said:
Had some crappy runs overnight yeh, but the mornings runs are coming in better.

I'll say that I am excited to see how the Euro AI model does this Winter. It has done very well with some tropical system this season. It nailed future Sara with no getting it going (still could). That being said, the 06z run shows a big shift this time next week about.
View attachment 154213View attachment 154214
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This looks good at least for some mountain snow, but an idea of a system to latch on to this is a pipe dream. The orientation of the trough on most of the models is very suppressive. Either way I think everyone should take this cold as a sign that we can get bouts of cold later in the winter that do have the orientation for a system to latch on and produce a widespread snow event.
 
LukeBarrette said:
This looks good at least for some mountain snow, but an idea of a system to latch on to this is a pipe dream. The orientation of the trough on most of the models is very suppressive. Either way I think everyone should take this cold as a sign that we can get bouts of cold later in the winter that do have the orientation for a system to latch on and produce a widespread snow event.
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Got ya on that. Yeh for anyone thinking we'd sneak in an early season Winter weather event out of this was setting themselves up for disappointment. Now I think areas in the Eastern US should watch deeper into the pattern if it can stick around into Thanksgiving week.
 
The OPs have all trended shallow with the trough when it does eventually move east. The ensembles are a bit more deep with it, generally. I bet we will see the ensembles move toward the ops. The SE ridge will re-emerge and we will go back to persistence since August. Deep trough in the west, ridge in the east. This will prevail through end of December at least. I've lived this story so many times. We will see what happens once we are down hill of the current solar max.
 
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