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Wintry Christmas Eve NC Freezing Rain?
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
HRRR looks plenty cold, saturation above the cold dome and showing a few more returns. I think we're still on target for some freezing drizzle and/or light freezing rain
From RAH:
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1040 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024
NCZ008>011-025>027-040-041-075-076-083-084-241200-
Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Chatham-Wake-
Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-
1040 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Low pressure will develop off the southeastern United States coast
tonight into Tuesday, bringing a chance of freezing rain to much of
the forecast area. While most locations will have the threat for
freezing rain, the greatest potential for ice accumulation appears to
be along the US-1 corridor.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Low pressure will develop off the southeastern United States coast
tonight into Tuesday, bringing a chance of freezing rain to much of
the forecast area. While most locations will have the threat for
freezing rain, the greatest potential for ice accumulation appears to
be along the US-1 corridor.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed.
$$
CumulonimbusIncus
Member
Per the NWS forecast discussion, a brief period of light freezing rain is also on the table early Tues for the NW portions of NWS MHX CWA:
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...
Key Message:
-30% chance of light freezing rain impacting Western Martin
County early Tuesday morning
High pressure to our north continues moving further away from
us offshore, and coastal trough offshore strengthens, eventually
forming a weak coastal low. This coastal low will bring moisture
in the form of cloud cover and then precip into the region
in the short term. Before the cloud cover moves in, we do have a
couple hour period after sunset where skies remain clear in the
coastal plain, which paired with light to calm winds could
result in a solid radiational cooling setup. Wherever we are
forecasting clear skies before midnight, I leaned heavily on
the lower end of temperature guidance to account for this rapid
radiational cooling potential. While this seems benign, the
temperatures we see along the coastal plain during the short
term will influence freezing rain potential tonight.
Hi-res guidance indicates precip moving into the region from
the south as soon as midnight tonight. However, we have a
substantial dry layer at around 5kft, and while cloud cover will
increase, precip will be hard pressed to reach the surface as
soon as high res guidance is suggesting. Through the early
morning hours, evaporative cooling will allow this dry layer to
moisten and cool a tad, before we get our surge of mentionable
PoPs after 3am. The initial precip from this system will be
moving into a departing cold airmass from the past couple of
days. Forecast sounding show a very shallow cold layer, with
wet-bulb temps around 31-33F across portions of the coastal
plain Monday night. Temps aloft will be very warm (5-10C), so
frozen precipitation (ie. sleet/snow) is not expected. However,
the lower temps from radiational cooling to start the night
mentioned before could keep the surface layer below freezing at
the onset of precipitation. Depending on how quickly the precip
moves in, and how cold we get ahead of the precipitation, there
could be a very brief (2-4 hr) period of light freezing rain
between 4AM-8AM NW portions of the CWA. With this forecast
update, we have a 20-30% chance of seeing light freezing rain
early tomorrow morning along the western half of Martin County
(near and west of Williamston), and the northwestern edge of
Pitt county (Bethel). Ice accumulation totals are expected to
remain around 0.01", meaning impacts will be on the more minor
side. It is worth noting that even with light rain at 33F,
there is a scenario where the cold rain falls on roads
(including bridges) with cold temps from the recent cold snap,
and this could lead to some slick spots on roads and pavement,
even where air temps aren`t below 32F.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Monday...
Key Message:
-30% chance of light freezing rain impacting Western Martin
County early Tuesday morning
High pressure to our north continues moving further away from
us offshore, and coastal trough offshore strengthens, eventually
forming a weak coastal low. This coastal low will bring moisture
in the form of cloud cover and then precip into the region
in the short term. Before the cloud cover moves in, we do have a
couple hour period after sunset where skies remain clear in the
coastal plain, which paired with light to calm winds could
result in a solid radiational cooling setup. Wherever we are
forecasting clear skies before midnight, I leaned heavily on
the lower end of temperature guidance to account for this rapid
radiational cooling potential. While this seems benign, the
temperatures we see along the coastal plain during the short
term will influence freezing rain potential tonight.
Hi-res guidance indicates precip moving into the region from
the south as soon as midnight tonight. However, we have a
substantial dry layer at around 5kft, and while cloud cover will
increase, precip will be hard pressed to reach the surface as
soon as high res guidance is suggesting. Through the early
morning hours, evaporative cooling will allow this dry layer to
moisten and cool a tad, before we get our surge of mentionable
PoPs after 3am. The initial precip from this system will be
moving into a departing cold airmass from the past couple of
days. Forecast sounding show a very shallow cold layer, with
wet-bulb temps around 31-33F across portions of the coastal
plain Monday night. Temps aloft will be very warm (5-10C), so
frozen precipitation (ie. sleet/snow) is not expected. However,
the lower temps from radiational cooling to start the night
mentioned before could keep the surface layer below freezing at
the onset of precipitation. Depending on how quickly the precip
moves in, and how cold we get ahead of the precipitation, there
could be a very brief (2-4 hr) period of light freezing rain
between 4AM-8AM NW portions of the CWA. With this forecast
update, we have a 20-30% chance of seeing light freezing rain
early tomorrow morning along the western half of Martin County
(near and west of Williamston), and the northwestern edge of
Pitt county (Bethel). Ice accumulation totals are expected to
remain around 0.01", meaning impacts will be on the more minor
side. It is worth noting that even with light rain at 33F,
there is a scenario where the cold rain falls on roads
(including bridges) with cold temps from the recent cold snap,
and this could lead to some slick spots on roads and pavement,
even where air temps aren`t below 32F.
Last edited:
SimeonNC
Member
NWS GSP has added a HWO for Mecklenburg, Cabarrus and Union counties
So we still have a little hope for some to see a light glaze. Maybe it can overperform a little.
Here's the discussion from RAH:
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Monday...
Surface high pressure is centered near Long Island with a ridge
extending southwest into the Carolinas and Georgia. Meanwhile low
pressure is beginning to form off the eastern Florida coast. As the
low moves up the coast tonight into Tuesday morning, there will be a
small window for mixed precipitation across central North Carolina.
Northerly flow from the NJ high is bringing cold and dry air into
the region in advance of precipitation, and initial precipitation
that falls into the lower parts of the atmosphere will result in
evaporational cooling, further cooling the atmosphere. Models are
trending slightly warmer with the system overall, and also slightly
farther east with precipitation. It appears that the Triad should
remain completely dry with this system, and that much of the
Triangle should only have a 20-30% chance of any precipitation. Only
Sampson County has likely (60%) chances of precipitation, and all
precipitation there is expected to fall as rain.
Locally, the forecast maxes out at about a 30% chance of freezing
rain at any location in the forecast area, with the most likely
corridor for freezing rain remaining along the US-1 corridor. The
chance for rain will move into southern counties after midnight,
peak around sunrise Tuesday, and move to the east by mid-afternoon
Tuesday. Rainfall amounts peak around a quarter inch in southern
Sampson County.
Temperatures should drop through this evening and reach their
minimum around midnight, then remain steady or slowly rise through
the rest of the night, with lows ranging from the low 20s to the mid
30s. Temperatures should then follow a normal diurnal curve during
the daytime on Tuesday. Daytime highs will only reach the mid 40s in
the east, where skies will be cloudy all day, and reach the mid 50s
in the west, where skies will be sunny for a good portion of the day.
&&
Here's the discussion from RAH:
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Monday...
Surface high pressure is centered near Long Island with a ridge
extending southwest into the Carolinas and Georgia. Meanwhile low
pressure is beginning to form off the eastern Florida coast. As the
low moves up the coast tonight into Tuesday morning, there will be a
small window for mixed precipitation across central North Carolina.
Northerly flow from the NJ high is bringing cold and dry air into
the region in advance of precipitation, and initial precipitation
that falls into the lower parts of the atmosphere will result in
evaporational cooling, further cooling the atmosphere. Models are
trending slightly warmer with the system overall, and also slightly
farther east with precipitation. It appears that the Triad should
remain completely dry with this system, and that much of the
Triangle should only have a 20-30% chance of any precipitation. Only
Sampson County has likely (60%) chances of precipitation, and all
precipitation there is expected to fall as rain.
Locally, the forecast maxes out at about a 30% chance of freezing
rain at any location in the forecast area, with the most likely
corridor for freezing rain remaining along the US-1 corridor. The
chance for rain will move into southern counties after midnight,
peak around sunrise Tuesday, and move to the east by mid-afternoon
Tuesday. Rainfall amounts peak around a quarter inch in southern
Sampson County.
Temperatures should drop through this evening and reach their
minimum around midnight, then remain steady or slowly rise through
the rest of the night, with lows ranging from the low 20s to the mid
30s. Temperatures should then follow a normal diurnal curve during
the daytime on Tuesday. Daytime highs will only reach the mid 40s in
the east, where skies will be cloudy all day, and reach the mid 50s
in the west, where skies will be sunny for a good portion of the day.
&&
NCSNOW
Member
25/16. Not a cloud in site so far. Gorgeous star lit winter night out. I see pc and mc on some obs just to my south.
Also man have we had doozy of frost past few mornings. It survives in shade till 11am almost.
Also man have we had doozy of frost past few mornings. It survives in shade till 11am almost.
Oh well... Lol
I was hoping we'd get a report from you saying you had ice. Early this morning it looked like it was heading for you.
There were a bunch of 32/30 obs in the rain shield.. best I could do was 34/24 with a few drops
Nope, not even a drop but temp was below freezing so there's that lol
Avalanche
Member
We have already learned from our expert Mets on here that you get cold and dry or warm and rain. They can’t coexists together
Oil and water=cold and water