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Wintry April 7 - 8th Mixed Bag Event

I'm at a cabin in the Smokies for the weekend. We've got a bit of elevation so I'm liking our odds to see some flakes falling.
 
If the NAM thinks it could sleet in Northern LA, it should be able to say over here, but no, it makes it even more annoying by having a system produce wintry weather in a place that rarely gets any at all this late, if not ever before.
 
18z gfs just caused me to issue a flurry watch
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SD said:
I'm curious to see if the depth of the cold layer is enough to refreeze after passing through the warm nose

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Good point that's a fairly stout warm nose but not too shabby cold layer either....
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Btw anyone else having issues uploading pics on the site (on computer not Tapa)
 
Going to be crazy to go from 70s today to a chance of sleet and snow tomorrow, especially in April. I do not think I have ever experienced that in my lifetime.
 
I only look at SREF for trends and it was a bad trend this run here this time. Mean snow went from 4" to 1" QPF from 1.2 ish to .6 and temps warmer. Will only stay up for NAM but will be interesting to see if SREF is an indicator this time or out to lunch with the drier warmer solution.
 
Nomanslandva said:
I only look at SREF for trends and it was a bad trend this run here this time. Mean snow went from 4" to 1" QPF from 1.2 ish to .6 and temps warmer. Will only stay up for NAM but will be interesting to see if SREF is an indicator this time or out to lunch with the drier warmer solution.
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The NAM is always too wet it seems. I wouldn't put much into it once we get into the HRRR territory tomorrow.
 
This system is drying up just like many others this winter and spring in NC and SC. The drought will be coming back in a big way before long. We will be lucky to get 1 drop of rain from this one where I am.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Going to be crazy to go from 70s today to a chance of sleet and snow tomorrow, especially in April. I do not think I have ever experienced that in my lifetime.
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The mostbdrastic change I can remember was in March 1993. I was a senior in high school and was getting fitted for an outfit. It was in the 60s in the morning and by evening it was snowing with a few inches on the ground. So the triangle area can have it's meteorological madness at times.
 
Avalanche said:
The mostbdrastic change I can remember was in March 1993. I was a senior in high school and was getting fitted for an outfit. It was in the 60s in the morning and by evening it was snowing with a few inches on the ground. So the triangle area can have it's meteorological madness at times.
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I remember that, but never seen that happen in April.
 
JHS said:
This system is drying up just like many others this winter and spring in NC and SC. The drought will be coming back in a big way before long. We will be lucky to get 1 drop of rain from this one where I am.
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Um, how'd that go for you last year saying you don't get things and the drought will return? I doubt you'll see nothing.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Um, how'd that go for you last year saying you don't get things and the drought will return? I doubt you'll see nothing.
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The last front that brought severe to N Ga this week, didn’t bring 1 drop of rain here. Was forecast to weaken, but not disappear. This Saturday event is forecast for 1/2” or less. The king of drought might be right!? It’s building over S Ga and SC
 
I mean, the low's in a good spot, it's close to cold enough, it's April.. what more can we ask for? lol
 
Great, and the RGEM with a 2”+ bullseye over Patrick Reed at the Masters DE2BC2B4-860B-448D-B821-E955D9237CC0.png
 
nowcast time.. I'm going for broke... all in.. I'm going to see a snowflake or at least some random slobs of sleet here.
 
6E8E078A-FDAE-430E-BA11-B8EA63B65B65.png Well, this is the 2nd storm in a row that has done this! Hope it’s not a trend, or the Shetley drought monitor will be at 10! :mad:
 
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