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April 14 Severe Threat

metwannabe

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Why not?! This one has potential, N/NE NC (probably further south like last weeks threat, the nice hail producer) and some areas in the deep south as well.... have at it.


One model's depiction
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Only marginal atm but I'm betting we see an upgrade to slight

1618328354735.png
 

SD

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Monster bow echo along the nc/va border looks like a good bet. A potential circulation or 2 on the south end of the line may be possible Additionally any cells on their own along the i40 corridor could pose some hail threat.
 

metwannabe

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Monster bow echo along the nc/va border looks like a good bet. A potential circulation or 2 on the south end of the line may be possible Additionally any cells on their own along the i40 corridor could pose some hail threat.
So the 3k NAM might be on to something...

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Crap
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Myfrotho704_

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These soundings in NE NC are very similar to those you would see along a dryline in the plains with low level Hodograph curvature and elongation/straightness in the mid and upper levels (for hail) might get a rare photogenic high based low Precipitation mothership tomorrow given the high streamwise vorticity in the low levels and strong mid and upper level winds FC10D4D2-C512-47F4-BC37-3F0D730852EA.png 391BD014-590A-4EFE-9ED7-C8CF5438A2E2.png ADF3FE99-FFEF-4CB1-8B9C-C9CD3175A4B3.png E267455E-8BAF-4292-BD2F-2D835772CEDF.png
 

Myfrotho704_

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These soundings in NE NC are very similar to those you would see along a dryline in the plains with low level Hodograph curvature and elongation/straightness in the mid and upper levels (for hail) might get a rare photogenic high based low Precipitation mothership tomorrow given the high streamwise vorticity in the low levels and strong mid and upper level winds View attachment 81811View attachment 81814View attachment 81812View attachment 81813
For ex, flow is just more NWLy in the mid levels FE7DDBBD-A9D4-4B87-868D-72430AD25EAF.png 824CFC05-657F-463B-AE44-CAD6A5AC4360.jpeg
 

SD

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These soundings in NE NC are very similar to those you would see along a dryline in the plains with low level Hodograph curvature and elongation/straightness in the mid and upper levels (for hail) might get a rare photogenic high based low Precipitation mothership tomorrow given the high streamwise vorticity in the low levels and strong mid and upper level winds View attachment 81811View attachment 81814View attachment 81812View attachment 81813
Geez at those lcls
 

metwannabe

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These soundings in NE NC are very similar to those you would see along a dryline in the plains with low level Hodograph curvature and elongation/straightness in the mid and upper levels (for hail) might get a rare photogenic high based low Precipitation mothership tomorrow given the high streamwise vorticity in the low levels and strong mid and upper level winds View attachment 81811View attachment 81814View attachment 81812View attachment 81813
Just noticed this snippet from the Rah NWS AFD

At this time it is believed that higher LCL heights,
due to the drier air in the low-levels, will greatly reduce the risk
of any storm`s circulation of reaching the ground. Thus, making

funnel cloud sightings a real possibility Wednesday
afternoon/evening.
 
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