Misc America Has Gotten Bad at Predicting Weather—But There’s a Plan to Fix It

[ncskywarn]

Not sure if this has been posted before but Interesting read.

https://observer.com/2019/08/weather-forecast-noaa-prediction-models-accuracy/

 

[BirdManDoomW]

I didn’t find it very interesting because it lacked a lot of substance or detail about what’s really going on.

 

[Rain Cold]

I haven't read the article yet, but has America ever been GOOD at predicting weather? The headline suggests that we have somehow mysteriously gotten bad at it.

 

[Tarheel1]

I haven't read the article yet, but has America ever been GOOD at predicting weather? The headline suggests that we have somehow mysteriously gotten bad at it.

They used to bust big on snow events sometimes, in a good way! I remember fondly when I was about 8-10 years old, in the CLT market, and watching whatever weatherman was on Ch9, my dads only news channel, they said at the most, we would see 8-10 flakes mixed in with the rain, we had 10”+ of snow!

 

[Fountainguy97]

They used to bust big on snow events sometimes, in a good way! I remember fondly when I was about 8-10 years old, in the CLT market, and watching whatever weatherman was on Ch9, my dads only news channel, they said at the most, we would see 8-10 flakes mixed in with the rain, we had 10”+ of snow!

Fine line between under-forecasting and over-forecasting. Models have definitely leaned toward the over-forecasting side of things in the last several years.
Makes it disappointing for us weather nerds.
Very few “surprises” are ever in store anymore.

it also can have huge implications for the general public too. I know in Greenville, NC we went through a spell of winter storms that busted on the low side. Typical rain/snow line issues.

The public pretty much ignored the local Mets for a while after.


but when winter storms overproduce everyone is grinning and happy! Almost would be better off to purposefully pull back forecasts and have them bust low lol.


same for wind too. A few Tropical storms recently got hyped a bit and winds didn’t achieve the forecasts inland. Now the public has that “it won’t be a big deal” vibe. Hopefully when a legit storm comes in and brings big winds inland people will listen.

 

[pcbjr]

I haven't read the article yet, but has America ever been GOOD at predicting weather? The headline suggests that we have somehow mysteriously gotten bad at it.

That is the key word ... it's just predicting, which is a far cry from knowing ... and frankly, it's also part of the fun of learning how to sometimes reasonably narrow the gap between the two ... just sayin' ...