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Tropical 97L

The 12Z CMC, like its recent runs, is significantly further S than other models at 171 (just ENE of PR) with it again much weaker than other models at 1003 mb. It isn’t recurving as it is underneath an extensive H5 ridge:

IMG_4312.png

Edit: ends up near Andros I. moving NW toward FL.
 
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GEFS is still rolling, but from what I can tell, it has a weaker system so far compared to the most recent runs as the mean.

Edit: Also seems as if it's conflicted on the idea of what happens. There's one batch that's further southeast and another batch that's further northwest and more consolidated at just west of 60W.

Edit2: Looks like the mean is going to recurve, don't feel like continuing the run.
 
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GeorgiaGirl said:
GEFS is still rolling, but from what I can tell, it has a weaker system so far compared to the most recent runs as the mean.

Edit: Also seems as if it's conflicted on the idea of what happens. There's one batch that's further southeast and another batch that's further northwest and more consolidated at just west of 60W.
Click to expand...
 
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
just off the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter portion of next week
while moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
Sunday and Monday across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
0/50
 
GFS looks like it might be a NE hit (edit: it is) after it gets uncomfortably close to NC.

I know that this is for entertainment purposes only right now, but any other storms besides Sandy involving the NE?
 
0/60.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
just off the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter portion of next week
while moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
Sunday and Monday across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
 
97L looks like a classic Outer Banks storm with some effects being felt there even if the center passes well offshore according to the GFS. The intensity will need to be watched carefully. If 97L is weaker than models are showing so far, then it might move closer to the Outer Banks or even inland due to the tendency for weaker storms to move further west before making the northerly turn they make when influenced by a high pressure. The Northeast needs to keep its eyes on this developing tropical system for a later landfall.
 
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The Euro stalls 97L just off the eastern coast of Florida for about 24 hours before it moves north for a landfall on the Georgia/South Carolina border. Another difference between it and the GFS is the intensity of the hurricane. The Euro has a maximum intensity of around 955mb while the GFS bombs it out about 20mb lower off the Outer Banks. The important thing at this point is that most of the models are giving a strong signal for a potentially strong hurricane developing and possibly affecting the Eastern Seaboard.
 
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