This is somethingView attachment 175037
More west than this?
This is somethingView attachment 175037
Sounds like it heard you and is firing a quick burst of convectionYeah, after looking good for a few days and even trying to generate spin yesterday, 94L looks crappy right now. Will be interesting though if whether it can try to fire up convection again, wouldn’t be surprised as it’s been feisty, and don’t blame NHC for tagging it with a red.
You would think with that high sliding off the Northeast Coast that it would at least turn it back North and Northwest for a few frames before finally kicking it out to see I think but of course the GFS does nothing with 94 l so who knowsWell, that's a very bizarre ICON run.
Takes a while to develop, then Imelda feels the effects of Humberto, but instead of it being pulled straight OTS it...travels SE through the Bahamas...
I'm not sure in my life ive ever typed the following but it looks like fujiwhara will keep this from hitting the EC unless models are way off and even if they are the interaction between 93 and 94l may keep the EC safe
The Euro showed that really well (0Z run). Of course, as suspected, the ULL in the SE continues to dampen with time and migrate north. Would have been interesting to see what scenario would have played out with TC1 and TC2 in proximity, a strong ULL over AL, and strong ridging over the Lakes and NE.I'm not sure in my life ive ever typed the following but it looks like fujiwhara will keep this from hitting the EC unless models are way off and even if they are the interaction between 93 and 94l may keep the EC safe
The upper level low will be a factor in determining where 94L will go if it should become a potential threat. The National Weather Service in Raleigh mentions it in their discussion as being something that could steer it towards the southeast coast and I saw a podcast earlier thatThe Euro showed that really well (0Z run). Of course, as suspected, the ULL in the SE continues to dampen with time and migrate north. Would have been interesting to see what scenario would have played out with TC1 and TC2 in proximity, a strong ULL over AL, and strong ridging over the Lakes and NE.
I suppose it could do a Ginger like track and come back west but i think this is the EURO giving us one last fun run for the season. JB is weeping again.
This is one main reason why I think the Gulf of Mexico/America might become a hot spot for tropical activity over the next few days. Throw in lessening wind shear over the region and very warm water temperatures and you have a recipe for development for any disturbance that might form in this area.The 12Z EPS, like 0Z and 12Z of yesterday, actually has an uncomfortably high # of members (10+/20%+) hitting the SE US 9/28-10/4, which is earlier than the 10/5-7 12Z Euro freakish US hit.
One thing that’s a bit concerning is the forecasted MJO phase 2 by both GEFS and EPS for 9/27-10/3. As I posted about last month, phase 2 has had (whether inside or outside the circle) by a wide margin the highest % (after taking into account % of days in each phase) of Conus Jul-Sept MH hits and along with phase 8 the highest % of H hits since 1975.
GEFS:
View attachment 175054
EPS:
View attachment 175055
The 12Z EPS, like 0Z and 12Z of yesterday, actually has an uncomfortably high # of members (10+/20%+) hitting the SE US 9/28-10/4, which is earlier than the 10/5-7 12Z Euro freakish US hit.
One thing that’s a bit concerning is the forecasted MJO phase 2 by both GEFS and EPS for 9/27-10/3. As I posted about last month, phase 2 has had (whether inside or outside the circle) by a wide margin the highest % (after taking into account % of days in each phase) of Conus Jul-Sept MH hits and along with phase 8 the highest % of H hits since 1975.
GEFS:
View attachment 175054
EPS:
View attachment 175055
Separation is going to be critical to the future outcome. If they interact too much we know what happens. If they separate then there's room for some shenanigansUpon closer inspection, 40% (20) of 12Z EPS members affect a portion of the SE with either a TC direct landfall, a skirting of the coast, or a weak remnant. Also, a clear majority of members that weren’t steered by a Fujiwhara from Humberto were in that 40%. So, whether or not Humberto pulls 94L into it might turn out to be the crucial factor for whether or not the SE US is threatened.
Upon closer inspection, 40% (20) of 12Z EPS members affect a portion of the SE with either a TC direct landfall, a skirting of the coast, or a weak remnant. Also, a clear majority of members that weren’t steered by a Fujiwhara from Humberto were in that 40%. So, whether or not Humberto pulls 94L into it might turn out to be the crucial factor for whether or not the SE US is threatened.
Bizzaro track.
12ZExample: 18Z Icon: no Fujiwhara and 94L gets stuck under the strengthening US Great Lakes ridge and subsequently turns NW toward C FL:
View attachment 175057
Edit: And the GEFS/EPS are forecasting this to be during the potentially dangerous phase 2.