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Tropical 93L

Canadian ensemble mean brings it over Florida into gulf, GEFS mean brings it into south Georgia in 48 hours. Who are you betting on?
 
weather bubba said:
I just took a look at the water temperatures in the Gulf and when 93L gets into the Northern Gulf there will be plenty of warm water to work with if it wants to develop. The question, for me at least, is what kind of shape will it be in after it crosses Florida?
Click to expand...
May blow up before it gets to FL.
 
East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93):
An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of
Florida continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
primarily south of the center. This system is forecast to move
westward across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday and Tuesday night,
eventually moving into the northeastern Gulf by the middle part of
this week. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for
additional development if the system remains offshore, and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves across the
northeastern and north-central Gulf by the middle to latter part of
this week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent
Click to expand...
30/40
 
King Icon!

If this does develop into a hurricane before landfall, ICON gets the King prefix for a while.

I think it is still more disorganized than it may seem at a glance. BUT, nothing is set in stone. Shear should not be too strong, and the water temps are very favorable. IF it can develop a core quickly, then it could be an impactful storm. Either way, it will be a significant rain-maker for Florida and the Gulf coastal sections.
 
weather bubba said:
I just took a look at the water temperatures in the Gulf and when 93L gets into the Northern Gulf there will be plenty of warm water to work with if it wants to develop. The question, for me at least, is what kind of shape will it be in after it crosses Florida?
Click to expand...
That and where ( how far north/south) it ejects off of Floridas gulf coast!
 
GaWx said:
The 18Z UKMET, which shows a 1004 TC at hour 66 at the tip of the SE LA boot (see below), is 6 mb stronger than the 12Z UKMETā€™s 1010 mb at hour 72. The 12Z run was too weak to be classified as a TC.

View attachment 173512
Click to expand...

Followup on UKMET:

-12Z had no TC/lowest SLP 1010 mb
-18Z had a TC/lowest SLP 1004 mb
-0Z is back to no TC/lowest SLP 1013 mb
 
Latest UKMET (6Z): 1009 mb
0Z was 1013
18Z was 1004
12Z was 1010

6Z Euro a little weaker than 0Z, which was slightly weaker than the most bullish so far 18Z

6Z ICON weakest in a couple of days with only down to 1011 mb

6Z GFS, like prior GFS runs, has very little
 
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93):
Satellite and radar data indicate that the shower and thunderstorm
activity associated with the low pressure located just offshore of
the east coast of Florida remains disorganized. This system is
forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and
then reach the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday. Environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for additional development,
and a tropical depression could form while the system moves across
the northeastern and north-central Gulf.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida through mid-week. Heavy
rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the
north-central Gulf Coast during the middle to latter portions of
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
12Z ICON is coming in even a little weaker than the 6Z and possibly slightly further north. It has essentially no LLC of significance.
 
Yeah it might emerge too close to the northern gulf coast to really do much. Something to watch though
 
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