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Tropical 92L

This is very close now per 8AM TWO; main potential threat area is Bermuda, if anywhere. This would be the first Sept TD+ in 2025, the latest first Sept TD since 1992, when it didn’t form til Sept 17th:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area
located about midway between the Windward Islands and the coast of
west Africa have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next day
or two as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10
to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
 
12Z UKMET: center passes just SE of Bermuda


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 19.4N 49.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2025 36 19.4N 49.2W 1008 42
1200UTC 18.09.2025 48 20.2N 51.3W 1007 37
0000UTC 19.09.2025 60 21.1N 53.9W 1007 33
1200UTC 19.09.2025 72 21.6N 56.5W 1008 28
0000UTC 20.09.2025 84 22.8N 58.1W 1008 31
1200UTC 20.09.2025 96 24.1N 59.6W 1009 30
0000UTC 21.09.2025 108 25.8N 59.8W 1008 37
1200UTC 21.09.2025 120 27.3N 61.2W 1005 46
0000UTC 22.09.2025 132 28.8N 62.3W 1003 44
1200UTC 22.09.2025 144 30.3N 63.0W 1001 44
0000UTC 23.09.2025 156 31.7N 63.0W 1000 49
1200UTC 23.09.2025 168 32.5N 61.5W 998 43
 
The models have switched in some cases. The GFS/CMC moved W to just SE of Bermuda whereas the Euro moved E to well E of Bermuda.

Icon: still well to the SW of others with it much weaker SSW of Bermuda then recurving NW

JMA: TS at Bermuda at 192
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
The models have switched in some cases. The GFS/CMC moved W to just SE of Bermuda whereas the Euro moved E to well E of Bermuda.

Icon: still well to the SW of others with it much weaker SSW of Bermuda then recurving NW

JMA: TS at Bermuda at 192
Click to expand...
Be another good test for the icon. It was consistently west with Erin and we will see if it's right again
 
8 PM TWO:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure located about midway between the Windward Islands and the
Cabo Verde Islands have changed little in organization during the
past 12 hours or so. However, environmental conditions are
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or
storm is expected to form in the next day or two as the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
 
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