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Severe 5/19/22 severe

These storms certainly have the potential to bring very large hail and above the usual damaging wind threat as well. If coverage grows more on modeling tonight and into tomorrow then not only is an enhanced risk possible but a PDS Severe wouldn’t be out of the question
 
One of those setups where the ones that do go up have the potential to be big wind makers.....wouldnt take much of a bowing line segment to make for a interesting afternoon.
 
The bust potential tomorrow is pretty high imo. If any early day mcvs are more well defined than modeled we are likely to see the convective coverage be shifted south or less due to subsidence and potential debris clouds. If the early day waves are weaker and the trailer waves move through near peak heating some of the models with limited coverage will likely bust too dry
 
Looks like we have a couple differential heating boundaries and maybe a couple left over ofbs upstream. No discernable mcv to track upstream leaves me not entirely confident we can get an organized mcs to roll through. Gotta watch the splitting cell along the nc TN border and some of the bubbling CU in that area to see if maybe that begins to take off
 
Minor MCS along the VA/NC boarder, best guess, working east of Danville.

81.5/70.3, massive ridge inbound.
 
Seeing reports of half inch hail out of the storm south of Raleigh, any verification of that?
 
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