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5/18/20 - 5/23/20 Upper Low Flooding & Severe Threat

The poorly dispersed herd of sheep that is the GEFS is finally starting to get a clue. This wet trend is probably not over yet either.

So as the gefs struggles with the UL and wet scenario why did it do so good sniffing out TD1 over a week ago? Seems strange that the gfs picked up on TD1 so early even before the euro but is now playing catchup to the euro on the rain event. Is it just different biases playing into it?
 
So as the gefs struggles with the UL and wet scenario why did it do so good sniffing out TD1 over a week ago? Seems strange that the gfs picked up on TD1 so early even before the euro but is now playing catchup to the euro on the rain event. Is it just different biases playing into it?

The GEFS & GFS have a progressive bias in the mid-latitudes, they'll do anything to merge a s/w into the westerlies, they also don't handle synoptically forced changes from diabatic heating via convection terribly well (often underestimate it)
 
So we are looking at 5 or 6 days of severe weather chances in NC starting Monday? Did I read that right?
Absolutely not. Overnight Monday (it’s always dark) some severe weather could enter the upstate SC and go north into the piedmont. But after that, I think most of the severe turns to flooding for a few places. By Tuesday I expect most will be locked in clouds until it’s over limiting the severe potential to just isolated through the week.
 
I'm assuming this westward trend is what has allowed the gfs to get TD1 as close to the coast as it has?

Yes, that's definitely what's played a role in TD One/Arthur getting closer to the coast in more recent runs, the bigger ramifications from this though are that next week goes from being dry to absolute deluge.
 
Flash Flood Warnings now for Virginia blue ridge. Very stubborn boundary there.
 
NAM eliminates NC from the threat Monday ??
 

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I wouldn’t worry about just 1 run. The Nam that far out is bound to make some major flips back and forth.

Yeah but the 18z euro/eps/gefs made a shift south, and I’m noticing that that TC keeps trending closer which would Effectively push the severe wx further south, but your right it’s 1 run
 
Back building is insane over Virginia blue ridge tonight. Isolated spots will have over half a foot of rain.
 
EPS has increased GSP from 0.5" to almost 6" over the past couple of days... :oops:

I don't envy this upcoming week in the 85/77 corridor. Hopefully RDU can stay in the 1-2" range.

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And GSP has been crushing the rain totals the past couple of months....will RainCold/SD/myself have been sucking wind as usual.

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