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Wintry 3/10-13 Winter Weather

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The heavier
Parker said:
Intense QPF on the GFS, it will not snow long by the looks of it, but when/if it does then it should be heavy.
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The heavier the sooner and the best chance snow will stick. Heavy snow rates overcome that surface temp heat
 
How many times have we seen this.....heaviest snow axis keeps shifting ESE as the even draws closer. IMHO, this just shows the models inability to recognize moisture exiting prior to cold air pushing in. Its like they are always playing catch up, but never quite getting it right. We shall see.
 
ATLwxfan said:
That’s just nutty. Several individual members with a wallop for ITP Atlanta. Just trying to think if the cold gets here sooner then it’s possible I guess.


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Honestly I would take whatever the models have for that “East” band and cut totals by 3/4 except in the higher elevations because the models are ALWAYS too slow with how fast the band moves out. Of course a 1/2” to 1” would definitely be a win for nearly everyone.
 
Arcc said:
Honestly I would take whatever the models have for that “East” band and cut totals by 3/4 except in the higher elevations because the models are ALWAYS too slow with how fast the band moves out. Of course a 1/2” to 1” would definitely be a win for nearly everyone.
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Been saying it.....this is not how we get decent snow in AL.
 
Storm5 said:
Who cares what the setup is ?? It's damn march and it's gonna snow . No one is suggesting we get a big storm out of this . We get you're point you've repeated it 1000 times


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I would venture to say that most people on this forum with any weather knowledge cares what kind of setup it is. Yes it’s March, but snow is far from guaranteed with this system for much of AL. The models are suggesting it’s a big storm +2 inches. I’m glad my point is clear, and I understand you don’t like it, but it’s a weather forum….so we discuss all possibilities, not just what we want to happen. JMHO.
 
DadOfJax said:
I would venture to say that most people on this forum with any weather knowledge cares what kind of setup it is. Yes it’s March, but snow is far from guaranteed with this system for much of AL. The models are suggesting it’s a big storm +2 inches. I’m glad my point is clear, and I understand you don’t like it, but it’s a weather forum….so we discuss all possibilities, not just what we want to happen. JMHO.
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I get you're point . Your said it 1000 times . It's not that I don't like what you're saying it's that you're saying it over and over and over . We get . I'll just delete duplicate messages moving forward . Sad people have to be babysat on a weather board


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Parker said:
View attachment 115367
You can easily pick up on the screw zone/dry slot ARCC was referring to on the latest GEFS

Just NW or BHM
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18 of 20 members showing snow for mby which is the most I’ve seen from the ensembles
in a few years, and while I highly doubt that flakes fly this south in Alabama, it is pretty cool to see.
 
DadOfJax said:
I would venture to say that most people on this forum with any weather knowledge cares what kind of setup it is. Yes it’s March, but snow is far from guaranteed with this system for much of AL. The models are suggesting it’s a big storm +2 inches. I’m glad my point is clear, and I understand you don’t like it, but it’s a weather forum….so we discuss all possibilities, not just what we want to happen. JMHO.
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Good point. Unfortunately your tone makes it seem like you are a troll.
 
At this point, relative to my location in Alabama, and suffering numerous rug pulls in the past, the following scenarios are wins:

- dusting
- 1 inch or more
- flakes flying

If I get nothing, that's ok, I'm used to it. It's March baby, and I'm gonna be a weenie!!!modernweenie
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DadOfJax said:
What’s sad is that you think a weather forum needs babysat because someone posts something that disagrees with the majority of what peoples want.
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There is a thing called beating a dead horse. Nobody likes that, tbh. It's not personal against you. But even though it's a forum and we discuss all possibilities, as you say, people can still try not to be annoying.
 
Personally I think everyone west of the apps has a solid shot at 2-5" through northern Alabama, Most of TN, and NW Georgia. Locally higher in East TN and WNC. Cold chasing moisture is nowhere nearly as big of a deal west of the apps as it is east. If anything the mountains help slow moisture down as it gets pushed up against the mountains and creates lift for additional moisture as well.
 
I don't think it's a bad look for the northern 3rd of AL but it could be better. Decent fgen on the cold side and almost an anafrontal look can do well for a low end dusting-2 maybe 3 type event especially in Al/Tn/northwest GA where the LL cold isn't going to be blocked by the apps. If the phasing trough were deeper with more energy focused at the base where we were really able to snap the trough negative and enhance the banded precip over Al this would have a much higher potential. I think the big bugaboo as you get down to bham is how much cold and moisture overlap you have especially with temps as warm as they are going to be as the system trending every so slightly faster and east
 
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