Downeastnc
Member
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical 2026 Tropics Thread 🌀
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
800 PM MST Mon Sep 28 2026
...POLO ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING ONGOING...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 112.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES
——————-
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
800 PM MST Mon Sep 28 2026
Polo is about to make landfall on Baja California Sur. Heavy rains
and hurricane-force winds have already spread across the peninsula,
and the worst conditions will likely occur in the hurricane warning
area within the next few hours. Polo is not as well organized as it
was earlier, with the eye filling in satellite images. The initial
intensity is held at 100 kt near the high end of the latest
satellite estimates, but this could be a little generous.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 25.9N 112.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 27.7N 110.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 31.0N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
———————-
Josh about to get hit hard!
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
800 PM MST Mon Sep 28 2026
...POLO ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING ONGOING...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 112.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES
——————-
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
800 PM MST Mon Sep 28 2026
Polo is about to make landfall on Baja California Sur. Heavy rains
and hurricane-force winds have already spread across the peninsula,
and the worst conditions will likely occur in the hurricane warning
area within the next few hours. Polo is not as well organized as it
was earlier, with the eye filling in satellite images. The initial
intensity is held at 100 kt near the high end of the latest
satellite estimates, but this could be a little generous.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 25.9N 112.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 27.7N 110.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 31.0N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
———————-
Josh about to get hit hard!
Do you think it’s still a cat 2 though or is it rapidly weakening? I’m wondering how Josh could be only 21 miles from the center and there be so little wind/rain! But I do know that rapidly weakening storms often landfall a category below the actual category. He said “either this thing vaporized” or the core is very tiny…hmmm.
Brent
Member
He was 21 miles away and only had a pressure of 997 mb wow
Yeah it must have been falling apart after recon left because they supported a legit hurricane still
I mean the satellite has been pretty ragged all night maybe it caught up
GeorgiaGirl
Member
It sounds like Polo’s landfall was at 95 kt at most, someone on X (not sure who) thinks it was less.
It was a good guess by Josh for an Atlantic hurricane season that has been dead (potential for a major hurricane landfall in Baja, which I’m not sure has ever happened?), but it probably didn’t work out quite as well as he was hoping.
It was a good guess by Josh for an Atlantic hurricane season that has been dead (potential for a major hurricane landfall in Baja, which I’m not sure has ever happened?), but it probably didn’t work out quite as well as he was hoping.
From 5AM EDT NHC discussion:
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 35...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
200 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026
Corrected for Key Message number 1.
Polo made landfall around 06Z along the west coast of Baja
California Sur, just south of the small town of Las Barrancas.
Several microwave fixes received after the 03Z advisory went out
(WSF-M, SAR, and two ASCAT passes) all indicated that center of Polo
was a bit farther south than was estimated at 03Z. There is some
uncertainty in what the intensity was at landfall, but given all the
data we have received, it is likely that Polo was a category 2
hurricane at the time of landfall with maximum winds in the 90-95
kt range.
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 35...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
200 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026
Corrected for Key Message number 1.
Polo made landfall around 06Z along the west coast of Baja
California Sur, just south of the small town of Las Barrancas.
Several microwave fixes received after the 03Z advisory went out
(WSF-M, SAR, and two ASCAT passes) all indicated that center of Polo
was a bit farther south than was estimated at 03Z. There is some
uncertainty in what the intensity was at landfall, but given all the
data we have received, it is likely that Polo was a category 2
hurricane at the time of landfall with maximum winds in the 90-95
kt range.
Recent Josh update on Polo on a farm he was staying at on Baja: includes a nice video of the peak as well as aftermath, which shows that people/farm animals weren’t injured despite significant damage to the farm. The main house he was staying in handled it well though:
Fay was again downgraded to a TD and looks like it is dissipating. However, the 12Z UKMET restrengthens Fay to a TS this weekend that then comes within 175 miles ESE of Bermuda. I’m not yet buying this, but I’m not assuming anything with the Energizer Bunny that is Fay. This is the 3rd run in a row near Bermuda and the umpteenth run in a row that keeps the Energizer Bunny going:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N 47.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2026 0 24.3N 47.1W 1013 22
0000UTC 30.09.2026 12 23.4N 48.7W 1013 21
1200UTC 30.09.2026 24 23.0N 51.2W 1014 23
0000UTC 01.10.2026 36 23.0N 53.1W 1014 23
1200UTC 01.10.2026 48 23.8N 55.4W 1015 26
0000UTC 02.10.2026 60 24.4N 57.2W 1015 26
1200UTC 02.10.2026 72 25.6N 59.1W 1014 28
0000UTC 03.10.2026 84 26.5N 60.6W 1013 30
1200UTC 03.10.2026 96 27.5N 61.9W 1011 32
0000UTC 04.10.2026 108 28.7N 62.3W 1011 33
1200UTC 04.10.2026 120 30.1N 62.2W 1010 36
0000UTC 05.10.2026 132 31.5N 61.9W 1010 36
1200UTC 05.10.2026 144 33.1N 61.0W 1009 39
0000UTC 06.10.2026 156 35.1N 59.4W 1008 32
1200UTC 06.10.2026 168 37.5N 56.2W 1006 34
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N 47.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2026 0 24.3N 47.1W 1013 22
0000UTC 30.09.2026 12 23.4N 48.7W 1013 21
1200UTC 30.09.2026 24 23.0N 51.2W 1014 23
0000UTC 01.10.2026 36 23.0N 53.1W 1014 23
1200UTC 01.10.2026 48 23.8N 55.4W 1015 26
0000UTC 02.10.2026 60 24.4N 57.2W 1015 26
1200UTC 02.10.2026 72 25.6N 59.1W 1014 28
0000UTC 03.10.2026 84 26.5N 60.6W 1013 30
1200UTC 03.10.2026 96 27.5N 61.9W 1011 32
0000UTC 04.10.2026 108 28.7N 62.3W 1011 33
1200UTC 04.10.2026 120 30.1N 62.2W 1010 36
0000UTC 05.10.2026 132 31.5N 61.9W 1010 36
1200UTC 05.10.2026 144 33.1N 61.0W 1009 39
0000UTC 06.10.2026 156 35.1N 59.4W 1008 32
1200UTC 06.10.2026 168 37.5N 56.2W 1006 34
Fay must have most of the ACE this season, lol.
I’m pulling for Fay to dissipate and reform again so it can have some notoriety. I’m not aware of any storms that dissipated and reformed twice, although I suspect its happened at some point. Anybody got some examples?
Similar to the 0Z, the 12Z UKMET has Fay start off 100% deceased but then she’s miraculously revived on Friday and becomes a TS on Tue!
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 27.3N 60.5W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.10.2026 60 27.3N 60.5W 1014 27
1200UTC 03.10.2026 72 29.3N 60.6W 1013 28
0000UTC 04.10.2026 84 31.8N 60.1W 1012 30
1200UTC 04.10.2026 96 34.0N 58.9W 1012 30
0000UTC 05.10.2026 108 35.6N 57.1W 1011 29
1200UTC 05.10.2026 120 37.5N 55.3W 1009 30
0000UTC 06.10.2026 132 40.2N 53.3W 1004 33
1200UTC 06.10.2026 144 44.7N 49.2W 996 41
0000UTC 07.10.2026 156 51.2N 44.3W 992 43
1200UTC 07.10.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING
I took a stab at researching (which isn’t easy with these parameters), but this could become the only recorded history of TS > Dissipate > TS > Dissipate > TS in the Atlantic basin going back to 1851. The closest I found was Lisa 2004, but that was TS > TD > TS > TD > TS. (it briefly became a weak hurricane during one of those 3 instances of reaching TS)
If Fay could pull this off, it would be a weird record to break. Kinda like setting a record for most times going back and forth between single A and triple A in the minors.
Would be weird considering we’re in a strong El Niño right now.
Found one more that’s similar, Fred 2021. TS > TD > TS > Dissipate > TS
Also Ivan in 2004 made landfall on the eastern Gulf coast as a hurricane, dissipated over the northeast several days later, then the remnants were tracked back into the Gulf a week later and became a tropical storm again
Yea, I remember that one pretty well since it was a bit controversial at the time for NHC to redesignate the remnants as Ivan. Pretty notable too (much more than Fay will ever be).
Still, Ivan only regenerated once officially. Was looking at instances where it regenerated twice after formation. (which I admit is kinda confusing)
NHC has lemonized Fay one more time, lol.
Regardless, we still may not have heard the last about Fay and I don’t just mean about her tenacity. I mean that she could conceivably be declared the season’s only hurricane (at least to this point) in post-season analysis!
I don't know what would be more pitiful, having a hurricane-less season or having to scrape, hoist and pray Fay above the threshold to get there. Haha.
Hmmm. I reckon we’ll await the results of the re-analysis in several months..
Looks like NHC only has 10% chance of redevelopment to TD status between now and Sunday, where it drops to basically zero thereafter. Safe to assume Fay will only get to tropical storm criteria 2 times instead of 3. Oh well. At least it was a good excuse to search the archives. This season hasn’t given us much reason to do so outside of looking up seasons of low activity for comparison.
lexxnchloe
Member
If this were 1954 Hazel would be forming in the lower right
0Z UK: high end 992 mb TS hits FL panhandle Sat AM and is the 3rd UK full run in a row with a Gulf TC:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 22.8N 94.2W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2026 84 22.8N 94.2W 1005 27
0000UTC 08.10.2026 96 22.6N 93.1W 1002 28
1200UTC 08.10.2026 108 23.9N 91.7W 999 36
0000UTC 09.10.2026 120 25.0N 90.3W 997 41
1200UTC 09.10.2026 132 26.3N 89.4W 996 41
0000UTC 10.10.2026 144 27.9N 87.8W 992 53
1200UTC 10.10.2026 156 30.3N 86.6W 996 42
0000UTC 11.10.2026 168 32.6N 87.9W 1003 29
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 22.8N 94.2W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2026 84 22.8N 94.2W 1005 27
0000UTC 08.10.2026 96 22.6N 93.1W 1002 28
1200UTC 08.10.2026 108 23.9N 91.7W 999 36
0000UTC 09.10.2026 120 25.0N 90.3W 997 41
1200UTC 09.10.2026 132 26.3N 89.4W 996 41
0000UTC 10.10.2026 144 27.9N 87.8W 992 53
1200UTC 10.10.2026 156 30.3N 86.6W 996 42
0000UTC 11.10.2026 168 32.6N 87.9W 1003 29
accu35
Member
0z GFS and Icon shows a stronger Gulf system
It looks like a storm coming out of the climatologically favored Bay of Campeche, threatening the Northern Gulf Coast, has legs. ALL operationals have the system by week's end. I see the NHC has painted a 30% lemon, too.
Thanks for posting these. An important question is whether this would be T, ST, or ET. For example, the 0Z/6Z Euro has a non-tropical looking non-compact, elongated surface low with no high winds although it also shows it warmer at 700 mb near the center vs surrounding areas suggesting it could have some ST characteristics.
Very true. I think much depends on how early the system develops and how fast it progresses. I could be wrong here, though, since the EURO is slower.
I see some similarities to Hurricane Juan in 85. The large wind field caused some tidal flooding problems in my old stomping grounds.
12Z GFS is going for it. The storm proceeds NE through Alabama, bringing copious rainfall on its eastern flank.
Shaggy
Member
Gfs has been cracking fictitious storms the last month. This one has support from other models but seasonal trend says weak and sheared should be the story
12Z UKMET is 4th full run in a row with a Gulf TC and again maxes out in strong TS range but well to the W of the 0Z’s FL Pan with it coming into EC LA:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 21.8N 92.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2026 84 22.1N 93.0W 1003 28
1200UTC 08.10.2026 96 23.3N 91.8W 1003 29
0000UTC 09.10.2026 108 23.0N 90.7W 1002 30
1200UTC 09.10.2026 120 24.8N 91.2W 1001 40
0000UTC 10.10.2026 132 26.2N 91.1W 997 44
1200UTC 10.10.2026 144 28.5N 90.3W 992 55
0000UTC 11.10.2026 156 31.3N 90.4W 994 30
1200UTC 11.10.2026 168 31.8N 90.3W 1006 25
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 21.8N 92.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2026 84 22.1N 93.0W 1003 28
1200UTC 08.10.2026 96 23.3N 91.8W 1003 29
0000UTC 09.10.2026 108 23.0N 90.7W 1002 30
1200UTC 09.10.2026 120 24.8N 91.2W 1001 40
0000UTC 10.10.2026 132 26.2N 91.1W 997 44
1200UTC 10.10.2026 144 28.5N 90.3W 992 55
0000UTC 11.10.2026 156 31.3N 90.4W 994 30
1200UTC 11.10.2026 168 31.8N 90.3W 1006 25
If something attempts to go in the gulf its going to have a lot of help from the jet and the ull to its NW. 12z Gfs may be a bit aggressive with its quick spin up as it seems to be tied to a convective blob but the signal has been there for something for at least a few days now within the ensembles
NHC has a mandarin by mid-week. 40% and climbing over time.