Tropical 2026 Tropics Thread 🌀

[GaWx]

Maybe after years of dire predictions of east coast threats we will finally get one in a super el nino

Hopefully not. Fortunately, the typical tracks in moderate or stronger El Niños even more heavily favor storms off the E coast to recurve safely from most of the SE due to a weaker Bermuda high and fewer strong storms tracking W into the W basin though Gulf/E NC/New England are not as protected from direct hits. Also, significantly fewer storms are favored overall due to increased sheer and dry air. I’m looking forward to the best chance at a relatively quiet season in 10 years! A break from the stress is what the doc has ordered. I don’t crave deaths, injuries, and destruction. There are enough bad things in this world.

 

[Rain Cold]

Ded for the next 2 wks at least

 

[Brent]

Ded for the next 2 wks at least

Haha I think I honestly could care less if anything happens this season. People online need a reality check on how unusually active it's been for most of the last 20 years. Even last year without real US impact having Melissa on the all time strongest list... And don't forget that was one of three Category 5s we had which was also rare

 

[NCSNOW]

It doesn't send mixed signals to me at all. The reason the season will be suppressed isn't because of SST but the decapitation of systems due to the shear El Nino produces. The SSTs can be 20 degrees above normal but if any development is met with 40kts of shear it doesn't matter.

Amen x 1000. If you ever did whip something up it will be OTS. Look at 1957 an 1982 as examples.

Case in point. It will only increase across basin.

 

[CyclonicFury]

Up to 40% chance of development within 48 hours, and a 50% chance within 7 days...

 

[accu35]

Up to 40% chance of development within 48 hours, and a 50% chance within 7 days... View attachment 196408

50%

 

[GaWx]

50%

This is now Invest 90L:

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal902026.dat

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Tropical Storm Arthur has now formed!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

LOL. Arthur remnants given 10% chance of redevelopment.

 

[NCSNOW]

NADA Season well underway.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Oceans are healing.

 

[wxdaniel]

Wanted to ask your advice on tbis potential storm. Family and I are going to Japan July 1-15. Im not familiar with winds in eastern Asia but what are the chances this typhoon continues to swing out to sea?

 

[GaWx]

The NHC has a new lemon off the SE coast:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Off of the southeastern coast of the U. S.:
A low pressure area is expected to form offshore of the southeastern
coast of the United States along the western end of a frontal
system early next week. Slow development of this system will be
possible thereafter while it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
——————————

0Z UKMET has a 1015 mb low hitting Daytona Thu AM moving WNW underneath a very strong H5 high centered over W VA although this is the model run exception rather than the rule. This is too weak to make it to actual TD status although it’s its first run with anything of note:

 

[GaWx]

The 12Z UKMET had nothing of note, even less than yesterday’s 0Z. But the new 0Z is the 1st of its runs with a TD transitioning from an extratropical low that forms on a front. It then moves WSW but remains weak and then gradually weakens followed by dissipation on Thu well off the SE coast:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.06.2026

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 32.1N 71.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.06.2026 60 32.1N 70.7W 1011 26
0000UTC 01.07.2026 72 31.2N 71.3W 1012 25
1200UTC 01.07.2026 84 30.4N 71.5W 1013 25
0000UTC 02.07.2026 96 30.5N 72.7W 1015 22
1200UTC 02.07.2026 108 30.6N 74.3W 1016 16
0000UTC 03.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET is fairly similar to the 0Z: TD that stays weak and then dissipates well offshore:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 28.06.2026

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 32.1N 72.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.06.2026 48 32.1N 72.3W 1013 25
0000UTC 01.07.2026 60 31.4N 72.5W 1012 24
1200UTC 01.07.2026 72 31.0N 72.8W 1013 22
0000UTC 02.07.2026 84 31.2N 74.4W 1014 20
1200UTC 02.07.2026 96 31.6N 75.7W 1015 17
0000UTC 03.07.2026 108 CEASED TRACKING

 

[GaWx]

The UKMET keeps developing this into a weak TD and then dissipating it well offshore the SE US as it moves SW, WSW, W, and then WNW. I doubt this ever becomes a TD when considering other models:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 29.06.2026

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 32.5N 72.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.06.2026 36 31.5N 71.9W 1012 26
0000UTC 01.07.2026 48 31.1N 72.1W 1011 26
1200UTC 01.07.2026 60 30.8N 73.0W 1012 23
0000UTC 02.07.2026 72 30.8N 74.3W 1013 21
1200UTC 02.07.2026 84 31.1N 75.8W 1015 18
0000UTC 03.07.2026 96 31.8N 77.2W 1016 18
1200UTC 03.07.2026 108 CEASED TRACKING